Intraindustrijska trgovina predstavlja važno pitanje u procesu pridruživanja i sticanja statusa zemlje članice EU iz dva razloga: (1) visine troškova prilagođavanja i (2) budućih koristi za privredu, posmatrano sa čisto ekonomskog stanovišta.
Sasvim je iluzorno postati član EU sa nepovoljnom strukturom proizvodnje i međunarodne razmene (izvoza), kakvu ima Srbija. Najveći deo razmene između zemalja EU (preko 50%, a razvijenijih i 80%) obavlja se kroz intraindustrijsku razmenu. To je oblik razmene u kome će troškovi prilagođavanja biti manji, a buduće koristi veće.
Dinamični agregatni indeksi granične intraindustrijske trgovine (MIIT) meri udeo promene sveukupnih trgovinskih tokova koji otpadaju na intraindustrijsku trgovinu. Najveći obim razmene srpske ekonomije (oko 65% za period 2004-2013. godina) optada na intraindustrijsku trgovinu. Ovako visok procenat predstavlja samo na prvi pogled dobar rezultat, ali ako se pažljivo pogleda struktura intraindustrijske trgovine uočljiv je visok udeo vertikalne intraindustrisjke trgovine (VIIT), odnosno mali udeo horizontalne intraindustrisjke trgovine. U svim sektorima privrede (osim u sektoru 7 i sektoru 0) rast intraindustrijske trgovine uglavnom je zasnovan na rastu vertikalne intraindustrijske trgovine. Otuda, nepovoljna slika sa aspekta ukupne izvozne konkurentnosti privrede i nivoa proizvodne specijalizacije.
Istovremeno, to ukazuje na veće troškove prilagođavanja, posmatrano sa ekonomskog stanovišta. Treba naglasiti, da bilo kakva intraindustrijska trgovina nosi niže troškove prilagođavanja od interindustrsijke trgovine, što daje jasan signal da je neminovno izmeniti strukturu razmene proizvoda i prilagoditi je strukturi razmene razvijenih zemalja.
Važno je naglasiti da je horizontalna intraindustrijska trgovina povezana sa rastućom ekonomijom obima, visokim stepenom diferenciranosti srodnih proizvoda u proizvodnji i različitim varijetetima proizvoda u potrošnji. U ovom segmentu „pametne“ zemlje članice EU traže prostor za unapređenje i sticanje koristi. Objektivno je, da EU čini uslugu što odlaže naše članstvo za narednih 5-10 godina – period u kome je potrebno prilagoditi strukturu proizvodnje i razmene aktuelnoj na svetskom tržištu. Dovoljno za onoga ko vodi računa i o nacionalnom interesu – rastu privrede u srednjem i dugom roku, kao i standardu svojih građana.
Napomena: kalkulacije autora na osnovu podataka SMTK RZS
Intra-industry trade represents an important issue in the process of accession to and obtaining membership status in the European Union for two main reasons: (1) the magnitude of adjustment costs and (2) future economic benefits, viewed from a purely economic perspective.
It is illusory to become an EU member with an unfavorable structure of production and international trade (exports), such as the one currently characterizing Serbia. The majority of trade among EU countries (over 50%, and up to 80% among more developed members) is conducted through intra-industry trade. This form of trade is associated with lower adjustment costs and greater long-term benefits.
Dynamic marginal intra-industry trade indices (MIIT) measure the share of changes in total trade flows attributable to intra-industry trade. The largest share of Serbia’s total trade (around 65% in the period 2004–2013) falls within intra-industry trade. Although this appears favorable at first glance, a closer examination of the structure reveals a high share of vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT) and a relatively low share of horizontal intra-industry trade. Across almost all sectors of the economy (except sectors 7 and 0), the growth of intra-industry trade has been primarily driven by vertical intra-industry trade. This results in an unfavorable picture in terms of overall export competitiveness and the level of production specialization.
At the same time, this structure implies higher adjustment costs from an economic standpoint. It should be emphasized that any form of intra-industry trade entails lower adjustment costs than inter-industry trade, clearly indicating the necessity of restructuring Serbia’s trade composition and aligning it with the trade structures of developed economies.
It is particularly important to note that horizontal intra-industry trade is associated with increasing returns to scale, a high degree of product differentiation within related industries, and a wide variety of products in consumption. In this segment, “smart” EU member states seek opportunities for upgrading and capturing additional benefits. Objectively, the EU is doing Serbia a favor by postponing its membership for the next 5–10 years—a period needed to adapt the structure of production and trade to current global market conditions. This timeframe is sufficient for those who genuinely prioritize national interests, including medium- and long-term economic growth and the living standards of citizens.
Note: Author’s calculations based on data from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS), Standard International Trade Classification (SITC)