Politika deviznog kursa predstavlja ključni instrument makroekonomskog upravljanja i važan determinator izvoznih performansi i ukupne konkurentnosti. U Srbiji je kombinacija nominalne deprecijacije (52,12%) i realne aprecijacije (49,55%) na duži rok proizvela suprotan efekat od očekivanog – postepeni gubitak spoljne konkurentnosti i slab odziv izvoza.
Kretanje deviznog kursa u Srbiji u periodu decembar 2000 – decembar 2025 pokazuje da je nominalna vrednost dinara (u odnosu na evro) praktično prepolovljena. Međutim, zbog postojanih razlika u inflaciji, ovo nominaln prilagođavanje bilo je praćeno snažnom realnom aprecijacijom dinara, što je dovelo do gubitka cenovne konkurentnosti na tržištu EU. U teorijskom smislu, realni devizni kurs – koji odražava relativne nivoe cena između ekonomija – predstavlja relevantniji indikator konkurentnosti od nominalnog kursa. Njegova aprecijacija znači da domaća roba postaje relativno skuplja u odnosu na stranu, što smanjuje podsticaje za izvoz i povećava uvoz.
Gubitak konkurentnosti dodatno je pojačan trajnim spoljnotrgovinskim deficitom, dok deficit tekućeg računa nije eliminisan uprkos značajnim prilivima doznaka i stranih direktnih investicija. Ovi prilivi su dodatno doprinosili jačanju dinara, dok je ukupna zaduženost ekonomije rasla. Proces tranzicije, obeležen izraženom liberalizacijom, trajao je duže nego u zemljama centralne i istočne Evrope. Umesto ubrzanja strukturne transformacije, doveo je do svojevrsne imitativne modernizacije, bez snažne domaće proizvodne baze koja bi mogla da podrži rast izvoza.
Režim deviznog kursa takođe je imao značajnu ulogu. Do 2008. godine dinar je funkcionisao u režimu kontrolisanog fluktuiranja, sa relativno širokim opsezima do 2012. godine. Nakon toga uspostavljen je de facto fiksni kurs, koji je u uslovima trajno više inflacije u Srbiji u odnosu na evrozonu doveo do kontinuirane realne aprecijacije. Kao rezultat toga, izvoznici dobijaju relativno manje domaće valute za isti obim izvoza, dok uvoz postaje atraktivniji. Realni efektivni devizni kurs je tokom celog perioda aprecirao, dodatno produbljujući trgovinski deficit i slabeći izvozni sektor.
Međutim, problem prevazilazi sam devizni kurs. Struktura srpske ekonomije nije dovoljno prilagodljiva da iskoristi potencijalne promene kursa. Necenovni faktori – uključujući pad kvaliteta proizvoda, nedovoljnu sertifikaciju, ograničenu usklađenost sa međunarodnim standardima, nisku tehnološku konkurentnost, male proizvodne serije, gubitak tradicionalnih distributivnih mreža i ograničen pristup izvoznom finansiranju – ograničavaju sposobnost preduzeća da povećaju izvoz čak i u uslovima povoljnijeg kursa. U takvim okolnostima, sama depresijacija valute ne može obnoviti konkurentnost.
Ove dinamike nisu u skladu sa dugoročnim zahtevima održivog rasta i razvoja. Politika deviznog kursa ne može biti zamena za strukturnu transformaciju. Umesto toga, mora biti integrisana u širu razvojnu strategiju usmerenu na istraživanje i razvoj, inovacije, rast produktivnosti i diverzifikaciju izvoza, sa ciljem postepenog uspostavljanja spoljne ravnoteže i unapređenja konkurentnosti ekonomije.
Iskustvo Srbije pokazuje da stabilnost deviznog kursa, u odsustvu strukturne konkurentnosti, može postati ograničenje, a ne prednost. Jaka valuta bez jake proizvodne baze ne signalizira snagu – ona otkriva slabost. Bez pomeranja ka inovacijama, produktivnosti i izvoznim kapacitetima, devizni kurs će ostati odraz strukturnih neravnoteža, a ne alat za njihovo ispravljanje.
Izvori: Narodna banka Srbije (NBS), EUROSTAT
Napomena: Kretanje deviznog kursa usko je povezano sa razlikama u inflaciji između Srbije i evrozone (na mesečnom nivou).
Exchange rate policy is a key instrument of macroeconomic management and a critical determinant of export performance and overall competitiveness. In Serbia, the combination of nominal depreciation (52.12%) and real appreciation (49.55%) over the long term has produced the opposite of the intended effect – a gradual loss of external competitiveness and a weak export response.
The movement of the exchange rate in Serbia in the period December 2000 – December 2025 shows that the nominal value of the dinar (against the euro) has effectively halved. However, due to persistent inflation differentials, this nominal adjustment was accompanied by a strong real appreciation of the dinar, resulting in a loss of price competitiveness on the EU market. In theoretical terms, the real exchange rate – which reflects relative price levels between economies – is a more relevant indicator of competitiveness than the nominal rate. Its appreciation implies that domestic goods become relatively more expensive compared to foreign goods, reducing export incentives and increasing imports.
The loss of competitiveness has been further reinforced by a persistent trade deficit, while the current account deficit has not been eliminated despite significant inflows of remittances and foreign direct investment. These inflows have additionally contributed to the strengthening of the dinar, while the overall indebtedness of the economy has increased. The transition process, characterized by pronounced liberalization, has been prolonged compared to Central and Eastern European economies. Instead of accelerating structural transformation, it has led to a form of imitative modernization, without a strong domestic production base capable of sustaining export growth.
The exchange rate regime has also played a role. Until 2008, the dinar operated under a regime of controlled fluctuations, with relatively wide margins until 2012. This was followed by a de facto fixed exchange rate regime, which, in conditions of persistently higher inflation in Serbia compared to the euro area, led to continuous real appreciation. As a result, exporters receive relatively less domestic currency for the same volume of exports, while imports become more attractive. The real effective exchange rate has appreciated throughout the period, further deepening the trade deficit and weakening the export sector.
However, the problem goes beyond the exchange rate itself. The structure of the Serbian economy is not sufficiently adaptable to benefit from potential exchange rate adjustments. Non-price factors – including the declining quality of products, insufficient certification, limited compliance with international standards, low technological competitiveness, small production series, the loss of traditional distribution networks and limited access to export financing – constrain the ability of firms to expand exports even in the presence of a more favourable exchange rate. In such conditions, currency depreciation alone cannot restore competitiveness.
These dynamics are not consistent with the long-term requirements of sustainable growth and development. Exchange rate policy cannot substitute for structural transformation. Instead, it must be integrated into a broader development strategy focused on research and development, innovation, productivity growth and export diversification, with the aim of gradually restoring external balance and improving the competitiveness of the economy.
Serbia’s experience shows that exchange rate stability, in the absence of structural competitiveness, can become a constraint rather than an advantage. A strong currency without a strong productive base does not signal strength – it exposes weakness. Without a shift toward innovation, productivity and export capacity, the exchange rate will remain a reflection of structural imbalances, not a tool for correcting them.
Sources: National Bank of Serbia (NBS), EUROSTAT
Note: Exchange rate movements are closely linked to inflation differentials between Serbia and the euro area (m0m).