Dugo će se voditi polemika da li je niska inflacija uspeh kreatora monetarnih vlasti ili je to splet okolnosti! Ovako niskim stopama inflacije svakako su kumovali efekti restriktivne monetarne, ali i fiskalne politike. Međutim, ne treba zaobići nisku agregatnu tražnju usled pada životnog standarda rezidenata i neelastičnog izvoza, pad cena prehrambenih proizvoda, pa i sve učestalije intervencije NBS na MDT-u.
Efekti monetarnih restrikcija i dalje drže inflaciju na nižem nivou od projektovanog. Ekonometrijska analiza pokazala je da postoji značajna zavisnost tekuće inflacije od svoje prethodne vrednosti. Očekuju se i dalje nizak mesečni rast indeksa troškova života i ukupna inflacija ispod targetiranog nivoa u prvom polugodištu 2015. godine. Približavanje cene energenata ekonomskoj ceni, biće prvi udar na opšti nivo cena i inflaciju, za čiji rast postoje najave za 2015. godinu.
Istovremeno, transmisioni mehanizam deviznog kursa ne odražava pravi uticaj na cene, najvećim delom zbog intervencija NBS na MDT-u, zbog ublažavanja prekomernih kratkoročniih oscilacija deviznog kursa na tržištu. Regresiona analiza je pokazala da jednoprocentni rast deviznog kursa (depresijacija nacionalne valute) vodi rastu cena od 1,2% u posmatranom periodu. Što se ne primećuje na grafikonu poslednjih godina. Na mikro planu prelivanje promene deviznog kursa na inflaciju biće uslovljeno pozicioniranjem izvoznika na tržištu (price to market).
Sporiji oporavak spoljnotrgovinskih partnera i pad izvoza u trećem kvartalu 2014. godine uticali su na manji priliv deviza na devizno tržište, pa je veća tražnja za devizama (zbog rasta uvoza energenata) uticala na produbljivanje deficita robne razmene. Rastući uvoz posledica je već dugo precenjenog dinara (prema stalnoj bazi 2006=100 to je nešto ispod 4%, inače je precenjenost i veća). Iako je elastičnost izvoza nedovoljna, problemi postoje i na strani uvoza, jer elastičnost uvoza nije dovoljna da bi omogućila pozitivne efekte u eksternom sektoru sa padom vrednosti dinara.
Restriktivne fiskalne mere uticale su na smanjivanje platežne moći građana, što je dodatno usporilo apsorciju u ekonomiji. Uz to, niža apsorpcija ukazuje na anomalije na tržištu novca – postojanje nelikvidnosti, koja ugrožava poslovanje.
There has been ongoing debate about whether low inflation is the success of monetary authorities or simply a coincidence of circumstances. Such low inflation rates have certainly been influenced by the effects of restrictive monetary and fiscal policies. However, one should not overlook the low aggregate demand resulting from the decline in residents’ living standards and inelastic exports, the fall in food prices, as well as increasingly frequent interventions by the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) in the foreign exchange market.
The effects of monetary restrictions continue to keep inflation below the projected level. Econometric analysis has shown a significant dependence of current inflation on its past values. A low monthly increase in the cost-of-living index and overall inflation below the target level are expected to persist in the first half of 2015. The adjustment of energy prices toward their economic cost is expected to be the first upward pressure on general price levels and inflation, with indications of potential increases in 2015.
At the same time, the exchange rate transmission mechanism does not fully reflect the actual impact on prices, largely due to NBS interventions in the foreign exchange market, which smooth out excessive short-term exchange rate fluctuations. Regression analysis indicates that a one-percent increase in the exchange rate (depreciation of the national currency) leads to a 1.2% increase in prices over the observed period, although this effect is not clearly visible in recent years’ charts. On a micro level, the pass-through of exchange rate changes to inflation will depend on exporters’ market positioning (“price to market”).
Slower recovery of foreign trade partners and a decline in exports in the third quarter of 2014 reduced foreign currency inflows into the market, while higher demand for foreign currency (due to increased imports of energy products) deepened the trade deficit. Rising imports were partly a consequence of the long-standing overvaluation of the dinar (just under 4% relative to a constant base of 2006=100; otherwise, overvaluation is even higher). Although export elasticity is insufficient, problems also exist on the import side, as import elasticity is not high enough to generate positive effects in the external sector despite the currency depreciation.
Restrictive fiscal measures have reduced households’ purchasing power, further slowing economic absorption. Moreover, lower absorption indicates anomalies in the money market, including liquidity shortages, which threaten overall economic activity.