Velike ekonomije EU, Nemačka, Francuska i Italija, decenijiski nosioci industrijske proizvodnje i privrednog rasta više to nisu. Ekonomski problemi (pad privredne aktivnosti, rast duga, visoka inflacija) sa kojima se suočavaju poslednjih godina usporavaju celu EU.
Sa pandemijom Kovid-19 ove zemlje EU su pokazale negativne stope industrijske proizvodnje (oko -11% u Italiji i Francuskoj, i skoro -10% u Nemačkoj). Oporavak 2021. godine doneo je relativno visoke stope rasta (9,1% u EU, 8,8% u evrozoni), ne i Nemačke. Već naredne godine, trend industrijske proizvodnje se promenio. Pad privrede Nemačke produbljivao se iz godine u godinu i ekonomija zapada u recesiju (paradoksalno je što istovremeno nemačka berza raste). Rashodi vezani za industrijsku strategiju značajno su porasli u Nemačkoj tokom perioda 2019-2022, s tim da su (isključujući kontracikličnu podršku zbog COVID-19) bili niži u Nemačkoj u poređenju sa drugim zemljama. Letargičnost u industriji Nemačke prenela se i na spoljnu trgovinu. Najgore su pogođeni sektori mašinstva i automobilske industrije. Globalne trubulencije uticale su dodatno na usporavale rasta proizvodnje.
Problemi se pogoršavaju jer traju dugo! Proces deindustrijalizacije je u velikoj meri doprineo padu industrijske proizvodnje (posebno u Nemačkoj, zbog preseljenja industrija, odliva fizičkog i ljudskog kapital) i doveo je ekonomiju u recesiju. Pad industrije uticao je na pogoršanje spoljne trgovine (smanjenje izvoza) i porast nezaposlenosti (otpuštanja u velikim industrijskim kompanijama). Kada stvari krenu nizbrdo, sve postaje problem. To je slučaj sa rastućim troškovima energije spolja i sporom, neefikasnom i skupom administracijom iznutra. Visok nivo duga je takođe problem, jer rast budžetskog deficita premašuje rast nominalnog BDP-a. Pored toga, nove političke odluke o dodatnom zaduživanju su u suprotnosti sa tradicionalnom fiskalnom disciplinom i politikom niske inflacije. Ovakvo okruženje ukazuje samo na jedno, na neophodnost strukturnog prilagođavanja, što je pre moguće.
Izvor: Eurostat
The EU’s main economies, Germany, France, and Italy, were the engines of industrial production and economic growth for decades, but they are no longer. The economic problems (falling economic activity, rising debt, high inflation) they have faced in recent years are slowing down the entire EU.
With the COVID-19 pandemic, these countries have shown negative industrial production rates in the EU (around -11% in Italy and France, and almost -10% in Germany). The recovery in 2021 brought relatively high growth rates (9.1% in the EU, 8.8% in the eurozone), but not in Germany. The following year, the trend in industrial production changed. The decline in the German economy deepens yearly, and the economy falls into recession (paradoxically, the German stock market is growing simultaneously). Industrial strategy-related spending increased significantly in Germany in 2019-202, although (excluding countercyclical support due to COVID-19) it was lower in Germany than in other countries. The lethargy in German industry spilled over into foreign trade. The machinery and automotive sectors were the hardest hit. Global turmoil further contributed to the slowdown in output growth.
Problems get worse because they last a long time! The process of deindustrialization has contributed greatly to the decline in industrial production (especially in Germany, due to the relocation of industries, the outflow of physical and human capital) and has led the economy into recession. The decline of industry has affected the deterioration of foreign trade (reduction in exports) and the rise in unemployment (layoffs in large industrial companies). When things go downhill, everything becomes a problem. This is the case with rising energy costs from the outside and slow, inefficient, and expensive administration from the inside. The high level of debt is also a problem, as the growth of the budget deficit exceeds the growth of nominal GDP. In addition, new political decisions on additional borrowing are at odds with traditional fiscal discipline and low inflation policies. This environment indicates only one thing, but the necessity of structural adjustment, as soon as possible.
Source: Eurostat