Trampova adminsitracija pokušava strukturnim promenama da prevaziđe ekonomske probleme, dok ostale velike ekonomije zapadne hemisfere „strpljivo“ čekaju u neodrživoj ekonomskoj situaciji (bilaznci-deficiti, zaduženost, ekonomski pad). Performanse američke privrede pokazuju relativnu stabilnost. Odlučne mere na unutrašnjem planu (smanjenje neproduktivne javne potrošnje) preilile su se i na eksterni sektor (ublažavanje negativnog pritiska neto izvoza na BDP).
Američka ekonomija se suočava sa tri važna problema, i to su visok deficit budžeta, visok spoljnotrgovinski deficit i dedolarizacija. Deficit budžeta uglavnom je finansiran spolja (Kina je tako posredno finansirala sopstveni izvoz), međutim danas su sve velike ekonomije u istom problemu i na njihov novac se ne može računati. Dedolarizacija se pojačava sa širenjem inicijative BRICS, s tim da se značajnije smanjenje udela dolara u globalnoj ekonomiji ne može očekivati u kratkom roku (preduzimaju se mere podsticanja maksimiziranja BNP ispred BDP). Konačno, trgovinski deficit je prvi zadatak koji je moguće rešiti, jer u najvećoj meri zavisi od sopstvenih mera. Zato je administracija započela pooštravanje carinske politike. Hajdemo da analiziramo stvane uzroke koji su doveli do odluke o uvođenju carina. Da li je to politički pritisak spolja, ili je to ekonomski racionalna odluka?
Usporavanjem privredne aktivnosti Amerika je započela 2025. godinu (pad GDP u prvom kvartalu od 0.3%). Pad je održan pre svega povećanjem uvoza (pad neto izvoza) i smanjenjem državne potrošnje (ukidanje neproduktivnih javne javne potrošjne), uz delimično rast lične potrošnje, bruto investicije i izvoza). Rast prodaje finalnih proizvoda na unutrašnjem tržištu (3,4%) povećao je indeks cena (3,6%) u poređenju sa prethodnim kvatalom (respektivno, 2,4% i 2,6%). Glavnog uzročnika treba tražiti u neto izvozu. Rast uvoza od preko 50% i slab rast izvoza uzrokovao je promenu trgovinske politike – uvođenje recipročnih carina ka trećim zemljama. Uvoznici su zato povećavali zalihe sa namerom da iskoriste priliku uvođenja tarifa i sačekaju više cene finalnih proizvoda. Prelivanje carina u finalnu potrošnju i inflatorni pritisak, u trenutku trenda opadajuće inflacije (stabilno tržište radne snage, rast raspoloživog dohotka građana, blagi rast štednje) i održive monetarne politike (zadržana referentna kamatna stopa, rastuće interesovanje za državnim obveznicama i kratkoročnim hartijama od vrednosi), ugrozili bi stopu inflacije i obezvredili pređašnje mere koje su vodile rastu realnih plata (veće zarade za iste poslove Q1 2025, u odnosu na Q4 2024). Spašavanje realne ekonomije „elegantno“ (uz brojne političke kritike iznutra i spolja) je rešeno odustajanjem od uvođenja cariana. Pozitivan efekat preduzetih mera viđen je već u aprilu, kada je smanjen pritisak uvoza na BDP. Kratkotrajni pad indeksa na berzi (naročito, sektora 500) smanjio je poslovanje, ali nije ugrozio realnu ekonomiju. Povlačenje odluke o uvođenju carina je odmah pokazalo svoje pravo lice – indeksi su se vratili na pređašnji nivo. Umešni u korporativnom poslovanju imali su priliku da kroz emisije hartija od vrednosti (korporativne obveznice -→ vlasničke hartije od vrednosti) promene vlasničku strukturu kompanija!!! Aktinosti na berzi (pad interesovanja za deonicama), nekoliko kvartala unazad, odražavali su uzdržanost investitora od ulaganja. Neizvesnost pre predsedničkih izbora i različita očekivanja uticali su na bežanje investitora u zlato (kontinuirani rast cena zlata na tržištu). Sasvim je očigledno da postoje ulaganja u ekonomiju, pa ostaje da se vidi koliko je adminsitracija umešna da investitore privoli na domaću akumulaciju i reši problem unutrašnjeg duga!?!
Američka ekonomija pokazala je oporavak i krenula uzlaznom putanjom. Nova administracija započela je strukturno prilagođavanje, uz ulaganja u tehnologiju i inovacije (trend može voditi rastu Q4 2025 i do 4%). Ranije mere o privlačenju stranih industrija ostale su na snazi, iako nisu maksimalno iskorišćene. Umesto da se bave sopstvenim ekonomijama predstavnici zemalja verbano se nedeljama protive protekcionističkim merama američke administracije (WTO je na zahtev Kine objavila ove mere neopravdanim). Ekonomska teorija poznaje dva odgovora u ovakvoj situaciji. Prva mera je pasivna i podrazumeva uvođenje recipročnih carina. Druga je strukturne prirode i podrazumeva podsticanje konkurentnosti proizvoda na tržištu (kroz rast produktivnosti i smanjenje jediničnih troškova rada). Očigledno je, prva opcija jednostavnija i deo je propagande, dok druga traži znanje, rad i novac! Brzina prilagođavanja u neizvesnim globalnim tokovima ostaje glavni ključ za budući ekonomski rast i razvoj.
The Trump administration is trying to overcome economic problems through structural changes, while other major economies in the Western Hemisphere are “patiently” waiting in an unsustainable economic situation (balance sheet deficits, debt, economic decline). The performance of the US economy shows relative stability. Decisive measures at the domestic level (reducing unproductive public spending) have also extended to the external sector (alleviating the negative pressure of net exports on GDP).
The US economy faces three major problems: a high budget deficit, a foreign trade deficit, and de-dollarization. The budget deficit is mostly financed externally (China indirectly finances its exports). All major economies face the same problems today, but their money cannot be counted. De-dollarization is intensifying with the expansion of the BRICS initiative however, a significant reduction in the share of the dollar in the global economy cannot be expected in the short term (measures are being taken to encourage the maximization of GNP before GDP). Finally, the trade deficit is the first task that can be solved, since it largely depends on its measures. That is why the administration has begun to tighten its tariff policy. Let’s analyze the real causes that led to tariffs. Is it political pressure from the outside, or is it an economically rational decision?
America started 2025 with a slowdown in economic activity (a 0.3% drop in GDP in the first quarter). The decline was sustained primarily by a rise in imports (an increase in net exports) and a decrease in government spending (abolition of unproductive public spending), with a partial rise in personal consumption, gross investment, and exports. The growth in sales of final products on the domestic market (3.4%) increased the price index (3.6%) compared to the previous quarter (2.4% and 2.6%, respectively). The main reason should be sought in net exports. The growth in imports of over 50% and weak export growth caused a change in trade policy – the introduction of reciprocal tariffs against third countries. Importers have therefore increased inventories, intending to take advantage of the space and introduce tariffs, waiting for higher prices for final products. The spillover of customs duties into final consumption and inflationary pressure, at a time of a declining inflation trend (stable labor market, growth in disposable income of citizens, slight growth in savings) and sustainable monetary policy (maintained reference interest rate, growth in interest in government bonds and short-term securities), would threaten the inflation rate and devalue the previous measures that led to the growth of real wages (higher wages for the same jobs in the 1st quarter of 2025, compared to the 4th quarter of 2024). The decision to save the real economy „elegantly“ (with numerous political criticisms from within and without) was made by abandoning the introduction of customs duties. The positive effect of the measures taken was already visible in April, when the pressure of imports on GDP was reduced. The short-term decline in stock market indices (especially the 500 sector) reduced business, but did not threaten the real economy. The withdrawal of the decision to introduce tariffs immediately showed its true face – the indices returned to their previous level. Those skilled in corporate business had the opportunity to change the ownership structure of companies through the issuance of securities (corporate bonds -→ equity securities)!!! Stock market activity (decline in interest in stocks), which lasted a few quarters ago, reflected investors’ reluctance to invest. Uncertainty before the presidential elections and different expectations influenced investors’ flight to gold (continuous growth in gold prices on the market). It is quite obvious that economic investments exist, so it remains to be seen how skilled the administration is in attracting investors to domestic accumulation and solving the internal debt!?!
The US economy has shown recovery and started an upward trajectory. The new administration has begun structural adjustment, investing in technology and innovation (a trend that could lead to growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 of up to 4%). Earlier measures to attract foreign industries have remained in force, although they have not been fully used. Instead of dealing with their economies, representatives of countries have verbally opposed the protectionist measures of the US administration for weeks (the WTO, at China’s request, declared these measures unjustified). Economic theory knows two answers in this situation. The first measure is passive and involves the introduction of reciprocal tariffs. The second is structural and implies encouraging the competitiveness of products on the market (through increased productivity and reduced unit labor costs). The first option is simpler and is part of propaganda, while the second requires knowledge, work, and money! The speed of adaptation to uncertain global trends remains a major key to future sustainable development and a benchmark for greater resilience.