Cene nafte na svetskom tržištu ozbiljno su ugrozile funkcionisanje privrede Nigerije – pad izvoznih prihoda, kontrola kretanja kapitala, vezivanje nacionalne valute za dolar i dramatičan pad deviznih rezervi glavni su uzroci. U sličnoj situaciji su i druge ekonomije izvoznice nafte, poput, Azerbejdžana, Brazila, Ekvadora, Venecuele…
Današnja slika Nigerije ne predstavlja iznenađenje, s obzirom na to da je ekonomija u velikom procentu zavisna od izvoza nafte (u pojedinim kvartalima i preko 90% izvoznih prihoda i preko 70% poreskih prihoda).
Zbog niskih cena nafte izvoz je prepolovljen, kao i BDP. Izvoz je u prva tri kvartala 2015. godine za preko 50% (56,58% mereno u dolarima) manji nego u istom periodu prethodne godine. Devizne rezerve su gotovo iscplljene (smanjene za 9 mlrd$ u poslednjih 18 meseci). Nacionalna valuta je pod pritiskom (posle gubitka vrednosti od 30%, vezivanje za dolar na nivou 197-199N/$), iako je zbog kontrole kretanja kapitala (ograničavanje uvoza, poreza na odliv kapitala od 20%) sve više zastupljeno crno tržište (sa crnim kursom od 300 naira za 1$, pa i više). Kompanijama koje uvoze sirovine rastu troškovi poslovanja. Centralna banka smanjuje ponudu dolara. Izbegava se deprecijacija nacionalne valute iz straha od inflacije, ali ograničavanje uvoza i oskudnost kapitala uslovće smanjenje potrošnje. Istovremeno, preko 20% kredita domaćih banaka nalazi se u sektoru energenata (sve ih teže otplaćuju). Investitori, pak, u isčekivanju daljeg rasta deviznog kursa raspoloženi su da investiraju isključivo u domaću aktivu.
Povoljna okolnost za Nigeriju je nizak nivo javnog duga u odnosu na BDP (oko 20%), s tim da čak 35% prihoda ide na otplatu ranijih pozajmica. Za sada to ne predstavlja opterećenje zbog relativno niskog budžetskog deficita (kojim Vlada stimuliše privredu – trenutno rešenje koje je jedino ekonomski opravdano).
Napomena: Kvartalni rast BDP-a, q0q
Izvor: National Bureauof Statistics, FR Nigeria
Oil prices on the global market have seriously jeopardized the functioning of Nigeria’s economy. A decline in export revenues, capital controls, the pegging of the national currency to the U.S. dollar, and a dramatic fall in foreign exchange reserves are the main causes. Other oil-exporting economies, such as Azerbaijan, Brazil, Ecuador, and Venezuela, are in a similar situation.
Today’s picture of Nigeria is not surprising, given that the economy is highly dependent on oil exports (in certain quarters accounting for over 90% of export revenues and more than 70% of tax revenues). Due to low oil prices, exports have been halved, as has GDP. In the first three quarters of 2015, exports were more than 50% lower (56.58% measured in U.S. dollars) than in the same period of the previous year. Foreign exchange reserves have been almost depleted (reduced by USD 9 billion over the past 18 months). The national currency is under pressure (after losing 30% of its value, it has been pegged to the dollar at 197–199 naira per USD), although capital controls (import restrictions and a 20% tax on capital outflows) have led to the growing prevalence of a black market (with an unofficial exchange rate of 300 naira per USD or even higher). Companies that import raw materials are facing rising operating costs. The central bank is reducing the supply of dollars. Depreciation of the national currency is being avoided out of fear of inflation, but import restrictions and capital scarcity will lead to a reduction in consumption. At the same time, more than 20% of domestic banks’ loans are concentrated in the energy sector (with increasing difficulties in servicing them). Investors, meanwhile, expecting further increases in the exchange rate, are willing to invest exclusively in domestic assets.
A favorable circumstance for Nigeria is the relatively low level of public debt relative to GDP (around 20%), although as much as 35% of revenues is allocated to servicing previous borrowings. For now, this does not represent a burden due to a relatively low budget deficit (through which the government is stimulating the economy – a temporary solution that is currently the only economically justified one).
Note: Quarterly GDP growth, q-o-q
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, FR Nigeria