Ekonomija Nigerije beleži negativan privredni rast posle čak 25 godina, i to -1.5% realan GDP u 2016. godini. Glavni uzročnik je pad ukupnog izvoza, a pre svega izvoznih prohoda od nafte usled pada svetskih cena nafte.
Novi pad cena nafte u drugoj polovini 2014. godine (jun 114$/barelu – decembar 38$/barelu, ili 66.8%), blagi tokom 2015. godine, pa i početkom 2016. godine (februar 32.6$/barelu) uticao je negativno na privredni rast Nigerije.
Sporiji privredni rast beležen je već u 2015. godini (ispod proseka za period 2011-2014) usled pada cena nafte, ali i izvoza sva tri sektora privrede, tj. usled pada inostrane tražnje. Izvoz je opadao iz kvartala u kvartal, tako da je u 2016. godini pad vrednosti izvoza iznosio preko 40% u odnosu na prethodnu godinu (-41.57% mereno u dolarima). Usporavanje rasta ekonomije u 2015. godini bio još izraženiji (-56.85% u odnosu na 2014. godinu), ali ne i negativan. Tokom 2016. godine smanjena je proizvodnja nafte, zbog političkih problema, za 13,65% (daleko više nego 2015. godine i -5.45%). To je uticalo i na smanjenje udela sektora nafte u realnom BDP na 8,42% (sa 9,61% iz 2015. godine).
Dodatan problem za ekonomiju predstavljala je visoka inflacija, koja je dostigla gotovo 10% krajem 2015. godine. Cena hrane je značajno porasla, kao i cena gasa, struje, vode, itd. To je bio direktan udar na budžete građana, što je uticalo na pad tražnje.
Prema procenama MMF očekuje se rast nigerijske ekonomije u 2017. godini od 0,8%, a u 2018. godini i do 1.5%, uz stabilizaciju inflacije na nivou ispod 10%.
Napomena: Kvartalni rast BDP-a, y0y
Izvor: National Bureauof Statistics, FR Nigeria
Nigeria’s economy recorded negative economic growth after as many as 25 years, with real GDP contracting by 1.5% in 2016. The main cause was a decline in total exports, particularly oil export revenues, due to the fall in global oil prices.
The sharp drop in oil prices in the second half of 2014 (from USD 114 per barrel in June to USD 38 per barrel in December, a decline of 66.8%), followed by a mild recovery during 2015 and early 2016 (February 2016: USD 32.6 per barrel), had a negative impact on Nigeria’s economic growth. Slower economic growth had already been recorded in 2015 (below the average for the 2011-2014 period), driven by falling oil prices as well as declining exports across all three sectors of the economy, reflecting weaker external demand. Exports declined quarter by quarter, so that in 2016 the value of exports fell by more than 40% compared to the previous year (-41.57% measured in US dollars). The slowdown in economic growth was even more pronounced in 2015 (-56.85% compared to 2014), although growth remained positive.
During 2016, oil production was reduced by 13.65% due to political instability (significantly more than in 2015, when the decline was -5.45%). This also reduced the share of the oil sector in real GDP to 8.42%, down from 9.61% in 2015.
An additional challenge for the economy was high inflation, which reached nearly 10% by the end of 2015. Food prices increased significantly, as did the prices of gas, electricity, water, and other utilities. This represented a direct shock to household budgets and contributed to a decline in domestic demand.
According to IMF projections, Nigeria’s economy was expected to grow by 0.8% in 2017 and up to 1.5% in 2018, alongside a stabilization of inflation below 10%.
Note: Quarterly GDP growth, year-on-year
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Federal Republic of Nigeria