Rezervna banka Australije podigla je 29. septembra 2026. svoju referentnu kamatnu stopu na 4,60%, što je najviši nivo u poslednjih 15 godina, usled opstajanja inflatornih pritisaka. MMF očekuje da će globalna inflacija dostići 4,7% u 2026. godini, što otvara šire pitanje: da li je reč o još jednom privremenom talasu inflacije ili se era jeftinog novca bliži kraju? Više kamatne stope poskupljuju zaduživanje, destimulišu investicije i dodatno opterećuju domaćinstva koja se već suočavaju s teškoćama u otplati stambenih kredita. Istovremeno, rastu troškovi javnog duga, pa vladama ostaje manje prostora za reagovanje na ekonomske šokove. Pred centralnim bankama nije jednostavan zadatak. Povećanje kamatnih stopa može da ohladi tražnju, ali ne može da reši nestašice energije niti da ukloni pritiske na strani ponude. Za Srbiju bi pooštravanje globalnih finansijskih uslova moglo da znači skuplje kredite, slabije investicije i veći pritisak na javne finansije. Ako troškovi zaduživanja ostanu visoki, preduzeća će morati više da se oslanjaju na rast produktivnosti, a manje na jeftino finansiranje, dok će se vlade suočiti s težim izborima u pogledu javne potrošnje i zaduživanja. Suštinsko pitanje je da li je ovo samo privremena faza u ciklusu kamatnih stopa ili početak dužeg perioda u kojem će novac jednostavno biti skuplji.
https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its key interest rate to 4.60% on 29 September 2026, its highest level in 15 years, as inflationary pressures persisted. The IMF expects global inflation to reach 4.7% in 2026, raising a broader question: are we dealing with another temporary bout of inflation, or is the era of cheap money coming to an end? Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive, discourage investment and put pressure on households already struggling with mortgage payments. They also increase the cost of public debt, leaving governments with less room to respond to economic shocks. The task facing central banks is not straightforward. Raising rates can cool demand, but it cannot resolve energy shortages or remove supply-side pressures. For Serbia, tighter global financial conditions could mean more expensive credit, weaker investment and greater pressure on public finances. If borrowing costs remain high, businesses will need to rely more on productivity gains than on cheap financing, while governments will face harder choices over spending and debt. The real question is whether this is a temporary phase in the interest-rate cycle or the beginning of a longer period in which money is simply more expensive.