FED su smanjile stope federalnih fondova za 50 baznih poena (iznad tržišnih očekivanja koja su išla do 25 bp), smanjujući raspon na 4,75%-5%. Ovo je prvo smanjenje ključne kamatne stope od 2020. godine. Razloge FOMC vidi u usporavanju ekonomije i, naročito, zapošljavanja poslednjih nekoliko meseci (142.000 radnih mesta u avgustu, ispod očekivanih 161.000). To je pomak ka okončanju kampanje usporavanja inflacije, koja je pala blizu nivoa pre pandemije. Komitet će pratiti izglede i ravnotežu rizika, a smanjivati posed hartija od vrednosti (trezora, akcijskog duga i hartija obezbeđenih hipotekom). Niže stope znače da su poslovni zajmovi pristupačniji (niži troškovi zaduživanja za sve vrste kredita = dug je jevtiniji), a poslodavci bi mogli biti podstaknuti da više zapošljavaju. Istovremeno, banke će jedna drugoj naplaćivati manje da pozajmljuju novac, a po pravilu te izmene prenese na klijente. Gubiće i štediše! Potrošači koji su problem inflacije poslednje dve godine rešavali kreditnim karticama (rasle su kamatne stope na kreditne kartice za 7%) lakše će se boriti sa otplatom duga. Mali kapitali će imati najviše koristi od nižih kamatnih stopa, usled sklonosti da drže dug sa promenljivom kamatnom stopom i imaju slabije bilanse stanja. Međutim, MSP se suočava sa problemom nižih zarada i značajnom neizvesnosti u ekonomiji. Koliko su onda realna tržišna očekivanja da će do kraja godine biti još jedno agresivno snižavanje kamatne stope od dodatnih 50 bp? Ili su to samo očekivanja izvoznog sektora koji računa na slabiji dolar?
Federal Reserve Board – Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
The Fed cut federal funds rates by 50 basis points (above market expectations of up to 25 bp), narrowing the range to 4.75%-5%. This is the first cut in the key interest rate since 2020. The FOMC sees the reasons for the slowdown in the economy and, in particular, employment in the last few months (142,000 jobs in August, below the expected 161,000). It is a move to end a campaign to slow inflation, which has fallen close to pre-pandemic levels. The committee will monitor the outlook and risk balance, and reduce holdings of securities (treasuries, equity debt and mortgage-backed securities). Lower rates mean business loans are more affordable (lower borrowing costs for all types of loans = cheaper debt), and employers could be encouraged to hire more. At the same time, banks will charge each other less to lend money, and as a rule, these changes will be passed on to clients. Savers will also lose! Consumers who have been solving the problem of inflation for the last two years with credit cards (interest rates on credit cards increased by 7%) will find it easier to fight with debt repayment. Small caps will benefit the most from lower interest rates, due to their tendency to hold floating rate debt and have weaker balance sheets. However, SMEs face the problem of lower wages and considerable uncertainty in the economy. How realistic are the market expectations that there will be another aggressive lowering of the interest rate by an additional 50 bp by the end of the year? Or are these just the expectations of the export sector, which is counting on a weaker dollar?