Kanadska centralna banka je povećala svoj cilj za prekonoćnu stopu na 3.75% (što je porast za 0.50%), kamatnu stopu na 4% i stopu na depozite na 3.75%. To je šesto povećanje kamatne stope u 2022. godini. Banka nastavlja politiku kvantitativnog zaoštravanja (QT). Privreda se i dalje nalazi u prekomernoj potražnji, dok tržište rada još uvek ne reaguje u očekivanim granicama na ranije intervencije. Potražnja za robom i uslugama i dalje prevazilazi ponudu, što vrši pritisak na povećanje domaće inflacije, jer je snažna tražnja dovela do naglog rasta cena usluga. Efekti nedavnog povećanja referentne kamatne stope postaju očigledni u oblastima privrede osetljivim na kamate: stambena aktivnost se naglo povukla, a potrošnja domaćinstava i preduzeća usporava (pre svega usled smanjenje raspoloživog dohotka). Takođe, usporavanje međunarodne tražnje počinje da utiče na izvoz. Očekuje se da će privredni rast biti zaustavljen do kraja ove i prve polovine sledeće godine jer se efekti viših kamatnih stopa šire privredom. U poslednja tri meseca, inflacija CPI je opala sa 8,1% na 6,9%, prvenstveno zbog pada cena benzina. Međutim, pritisci na cene ostaju široko zasnovani, sa dve trećine komponenti indeksa potrošačkih cena porasle za više od 5% tokom prošle godine. Mere bazne inflacije koje Banka još uvek ne pokazuju značajne dokaze da osnovni pritisci na cene popuštaju. Kratkoročna inflaciona očekivanja ostaju visoka, povećavajući rizik da će se povišena inflacija nastaviti. Da li su očekivanja opravdana: da će se CPI smanjiti s obzirom da su više kamatne stope postepeno balansiraju tražnju i ponudu, na sve manje pritiske na cene zbog manjih globalnih poremećaja u snabdevanju? Posebno, imajući u vidu činjenicu da Upravni savet banke očekuje da će kamatna stopa morati da raste dalje zbog postojeće inflacije i inflatornih očekivanja, kao i tekućih pritisaka tražnje u privredi. Buduća povećanja kamatne stope moraju biti pod uticajem procena koliko restriktivna monetarna politika deluje na usporavanje tražnje, kako se rešavaju izazovi ponude i kako reaguju inflacija i inflatorna očekivanja.
The Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight rate to 3.75% (up 0.50%), the interest rate to 4% and the deposit rate to 3.75%. It is the sixth interest rate increase in 2022. The Bank continues the quantitative tightening (QT) policy. The economy is still in excessive demand, while the labor market is still not responding within the expected limits to earlier interventions. Demand for goods and services continues to outstrip supply, putting upward pressure on domestic inflation as strong demand has led to a sharp rise in service prices. The effects of the recent increase in the benchmark interest rate are becoming apparent in interest-sensitive areas of the economy: housing activity has retreated sharply, and household and business spending is slowing (primarily due to a reduction in disposable income). Also, the slowdown in international demand is beginning to affect exports. Economic growth is expected to be halted by the end of this year and the first half of next year as the effects of higher interest rates spread through the economy. Over the past three months, CPI inflation has declined from 8.1% to 6.9%, primarily due to lower gasoline prices. However, price pressures remain broad-based, with two-thirds of the CPI components rising by more than 5% over the past year. The Bank’s measures of core inflation still show no significant evidence that underlying price pressures are easing. Short-term inflation expectations remain high, increasing the risk that elevated inflation will continue. Are expectations justified: that the CPI will decrease as higher interest rates gradually balance supply and demand, to diminishing price pressures due to smaller global supply disruptions? Especially, bearing in mind the fact that the Bank’s Management Council expects that the interest rate will have to rise further due to the existing inflation and inflationary expectations, as well as ongoing demand pressures in the economy. Future interest rate hikes must be influenced by assessments of how restrictive monetary policy is working to dampen demand, how supply challenges are being addressed, and how inflation and inflationary expectations are responding.