Banka Japana kontinuirano povećava kamatne stope poslednjih godinu i po dana (nakon nekoliko godina negativnih kamatnih stopa) kako bi se zaštitila od rastućih inflatornih pritisaka, koji su uglavnom rezultat prethodnog masovnog štampanja novca u ekonomiji (monetarna ekspanzija 2020-2022) – monetarni element je destabilizovao ekonomiju.
- 24. januar 2025, povećanje od 25 baznih poena, na 0,50% – Vođeno rastućim poverenjem da će rast plata održati domaću inflaciju održivo blizu cilja od 2%.
- 19. decembar 2025, povećanje od 25 baznih poena, na 0,75% – Usvojeno pod administracijom premijera Sanae Takaičija radi suzbijanja stalnih inflatornih pritisaka od troškova uvoza.
- 16. jun 2026, dodatnih 25 baznih poena, povećanje na 1,00% – Troškovi zaduživanja su prvi put za 31 godinu porasli u rasponu od 1% zbog ubrzanih globalnih energetskih šokova.
- 31. jul 2026, zadržano na 1,00% – Očekivano (!!!), iako je odbor izdao stroge smernice signalizirajući spremnost za buduća povećanja.
Iako su kamatne stope ostale stabilne u julu 2026, odluka je izazvala značajno neslaganje člana odbora Hadžimea Takate, koji se zalagao za agresivno povećanje kamatne stope na 1,25% radi zaštite od inflatornih rizika. Pritisci na tržište su se povećali: Rastući zamah kratkoročnih kamatnih stopa ozbiljno je uticao na japanske državne obveznice (JDB). Referentni prinos JDB sa rokom od 10 godina nedavno je skočio na skoro 30-godišnji maksimum od 2,945% u avgustu 2026.
Rešenje je restriktivna monetarna politika. Međutim, ne direktno kroz devizne rezerve – to ne bi bio najbolji put kojim bi centralna banka mogla da krene u ovom trenutku. Ono što bi bilo efikasno za privredu jeste povećanje stope obaveznih rezervi, što bi „nateralo“ bankarski sektor da postepeno povlači novac iz opticaja. Zapravo, postizanje stabilnosti tržišta (novac, kamatne stope i devizni kursevi) postiglo bi se kroz bankarski sistem, a ne intervencijama u devizne rezerve.
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/index.htm
The Bank of Japan has been continuously raising interest rates for the past year and a half (after several years of negative interest rates) to protect itself from rising inflationary pressures, which are largely the result of previous massive money printing in the economy (the 2020-2022 monetary expansion) – the monetary element has destabilized the economy.
- July 31, 2026, held at 1.00% – Expected (!!!), although the board issued strict guidelines signaling readiness for future increases.
- January 24, 2025, 25 basis point increase, to 0.50% – Driven by growing confidence that wage growth will keep domestic inflation sustainably close to the 2% target.
- December 19, 2025, 25 basis point increase, to 0.75% – Adopted under the administration of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to curb ongoing inflationary pressures from import costs.
- June 16, 2026, additional 25 basis points, increase to 1.00% – Borrowing costs rose within 1% for the first time in 31 years due to accelerating global energy shocks.
Although interest rates remained stable in July 2026, the decision caused significant dissent from board member Hajime Takata, who advocated for an aggressive rate hike to 1.25% to protect against inflation risks. Market pressures increased: The rising momentum in short-term interest rates seriously affected Japanese government bonds (JGBs). The benchmark 10-year JDB yield recently jumped to a near 30-year high of 2.945% in August 2026.
The solution is a restrictive monetary policy. However, not directly through foreign exchange reserves – that would not be the best path for the central bank to take at this time. What would be effective for the economy is to increase the reserve requirement ratio, which would „force“ the banking sector to gradually withdraw money from circulation. In fact, achieving market stability (money, interest rates and exchange rates) would be achieved through the banking system, and not by intervening in foreign exchange reserves.