Industrijska proizvodnja u Evropi mesecima unazad beleži negativne stope rasta. Poslednji rast inustrije ostvaren je u septembru 2022. godine. Kumulativan rast industrije u poslednjih 10 godina je svega 10%, dok je pad sektora energetike skoro 20%. ECB nastavlja sa snižavanjem kamatnih stopa ne bi li podstakla realne ekonomiju. Rezultati su sve lošiji!
Između 2015. i 2024. godine ukupna industrijska proizvodnja u EU je rasla relativno sporo (kumulativan rast od 10%), uz dramatičan kumulativan pad energetskog sektora (-18.4%). Međutim, suprotno opštem trendu u industriji, proizvodnja netrajnih potrošačkih dobara povećana je za 37,6% tokom posamtranog perioda. Pred Kovid-19 pandemiju industrijska proizvodnja je više stagnirala, potom pandemija dovodi do njenog masovnog smanjenja (posebno trajnih potrošačkih dobara i kapitalnih dobara), da bi usledio period blagog oporavljanja. Najveći rast ukupne industrije zabeležen je septembra 2022. godine, nakon koga ukupna industrijska proizvodnja strmoglavo pada (pad od -7,5%, u odnosu na septembar 2024). Masovni padovi su posebno zabeleženi kod trajnih potrošačkih dobara (-7,1%), kapitalnih dobara (-7,7%) i intermedijarnih dobara (-7,8%), uz energiju (-5,3%) i blagi rast proizvodnje netrajnih potrošačkih dobara (0,1%).
Posmatrano po detaljnim NACE odeljcima, u 2023. godini došlo je do smanjenja proizvodnje u oko dve trećine svih industrija u odnosu na 2022. godinu. Relativno visok porast zabeležen je u proizvodnji motornih vozila i ostale transportne opreme. Sa druge strane spektra, vađenje sirove nafte i prirodnog gasa smanjeno je za 17,9%, a vađenje uglja i lignita za 15,9%.
Globlane turbulencije, neizvesnost i rizici ukazuju na nužnost uvođenja strukturnih promena zasnovanih na novim industrijama, tehnologiji i inovacijama. Brze promene i retke sirovine diktiraju novu proaktivnu industrijsku politiku.
Napomena: Indeks industrijske proizvodnje (IIP) je indikator poslovnog ciklusa koji meri mesečne promene u proizvodnji industrije prilagođenoj cenama.
Izvor: Eurostat
Napomena: Industrijske grupe prema NACE podeli
Industrial production in Europe has been recording negative growth rates for months. The last growth of the industry was achieved in September 2022. The cumulative growth of the industry in the previouds10 years is only 10%, while the decline of the energy sector is almost 20%. The ECB continues to lower interest rates to stimulate the real economy. The results are getting worse!
Between 2015 and 2024, total industrial production in the EU grew relatively slowly (cumulative growth of 10%), with a dramatic decline in the energy sector (-18.4%). However, contrary to the general trend in the industry, the production of non-durable consumer goods increased by 37.6% during the period under review. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, industrial production was more stagnant; the pandemic led to its massive reduction (especially consumer durables and capital goods), followed by a mild recovery period. The highest growth of the total industry was recorded in September 2022, after which total industrial production plummeted (down by -7.5%, compared to September 2024). Massive declines were especially recorded in durable consumer goods (-7.1%), capital goods (-7.7%), and intermediate goods (-7.8%), with energy (-5.3%) and a slight increase in the production of non-durable consumer goods (0.1%).
According to NACE sections, in 2023, there was a decrease in production in about two-thirds of all industries compared to 2022. A relatively high increase was recorded in the production of motor vehicles and other transport equipment. On the other side, the extraction of crude oil and natural gas decreased by 17.9%, and the mining of coal and lignite by 15.9%.
Global turbulence, uncertainty, and risks point to the necessity of introducing structural changes based on new industries, technology, and innovation. Rapid changes and scarce raw materials dictate a new proactive industrial policy.
Note: The industrial production index (IPI) is a business cycle indicator which measures monthly changes in the price-adjusted output of industry.
Source: Eurostat (online data code: sts inpr_a)
Note: The industry groups, NACE divisions