Centralna banka Rusije je smanjila ključnu stopu za 50 baznih poena na 7,50% godišnje. Trenutne stope rasta potrošačkih cena ostaju niske, što doprinosi daljem usporavanju godišnje inflacije. Ovo je zbog uticaja skupa jednokratnih faktora i smanjene potražnje. Kretanja poslovne aktivnosti su bolja od očekivanja u julu. Ekonomska aktivnost ostaje pojačana usled izazova iz spoljnog okruženja, i viših inflacionih očekivanja stanovništva i preduzeća. Pad ukupne inflacije je najvećim delom posledica kontinuiranog prilagođavanja cena roba i usluga, nakon što su naglo porasle u martu. Ovo je bilo podržano dinamikom kursa rublje (jačanje) i generalno smanjenom potražnjom potrošača, ali i njihovom većom štednjom. Dodatni dezinflatorni faktor bila je ekspanzija ponude na brojnim tržištima robe, pošto su spoljna i domaća izvozna ograničenja ostala na snazi. Nakon julskog pada ključne stope, smanjeni su prinosi na kratkoročne i srednjoročne OFZ, dok su na dugoročne OFZ gotovo nepromenjeni. Došlo je do daljeg pada kamatnih stopa na kredite i depozite, posebno kratkoročne. Ubrzan je rast kreditiranja privrede. Oporavak je primećen u neobezbeđenim potrošačkim kreditima, uz značajan rast hipotekarnih kredita. Kreditna aktivnost je podržana i programima kreditiranja subvencionisanih od strane vlade i smanjenjem ključne stope poslednjih meseci. Dobar rod poljoprivrednih proizvoda u 2022. godini može biti dodatni dezinflatorni faktor, kao i niska nezaposlenost. Povećanje ponude na domaćem tržištu robe koja podleže izvoznim ograničenjima takođe može imati izraženije dezinflatorne efekte. Postoji bojazan! Ograničenja na strani ponude mogu se posebno pojačati zbog problema sa nabavkom opreme, sporog popunjavanja zaliha gotovih proizvoda, sirovina i komponenti u slučaju intenziviranja negativnih trendova u dinamici uvoza. Zauzvrat, materijalizacija rastućih rizika globalne recesije može dodatno oslabiti eksternu tražnju za ruskim izvozom i kao rezultat toga izazvati slabiju rublju.
Bank of Russia cuts key rate by 50 bp to 7.50% p.a. | Bank of Russia
The Central Bank of Russia reduced the key rate by 50 basis points to 7.50% per annum. Current consumer price growth rates remain low, contributing to a further slowdown in annual inflation. This is due to the impact of a set of one-off factors and reduced demand. Trends in business activity are better than expected in July. Economic activity remains strengthened due to challenges from the external environment, and higher inflationary expectations of the population and companies. The decline in overall inflation is largely due to the continued adjustment of the prices of goods and services, after they rose sharply in March. This was supported by the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate (strengthening) and generally reduced consumer demand, but also by their higher savings. An additional disinflationary factor was the expansion of supply in a number of commodity markets, as foreign and domestic export restrictions remained in place. After the July drop in the key rate, yields on short- and medium-term OFZs decreased, while those on long-term OFZs were almost unchanged. There was a further drop in interest rates on loans and deposits, especially short-term ones. Crediting to the economy has grown rapidly. A recovery was observed in unsecured consumer loans, with significant growth in mortgage loans. Lending activity has been supported by both government-subsidized lending programs and key rate cuts in recent months. A good harvest of agricultural products in 2022 may be an additional disinflationary factor, as well as low unemployment. An increase in the supply on the domestic market of goods subject to export restrictions can also have more pronounced disinflationary effects. There is fear! Limitations on the supply side can be especially strengthened due to problems with the procurement of equipment, slow replenishment of stocks of finished products, raw materials and components in case of intensification of negative trends in the dynamics of imports. In turn, the materialization of growing risks of a global recession may further weaken external demand for Russian exports and cause a weaker ruble as a result.