Poslednjih meseci Venecuela se suočava sa dramatičnim rastom inflacije – stopa inflacije (tj. hiperiflacija) dostigla 25.000% u maju mesecu 2018. godine. U maju mesecu tekuće godine stopa inflacije je beležila rast od 80% mesečno. Ako bi se nastavio ovakav tempo stopa inflacije bi krajem 2018. godine dostigla 100.000%.
Venecuela je zapala u ekonomsku krizu 2014. godine. Agonija se nastavlja i narednih godina. Suočena sa padom poreskih prihoda zapada u duboku recesiju 2015-16. godine (slično, u Brazilu i Rusiji). Tokom 2017. godine Venecuela značajno smanjuje proizvodnju nafte (2.38 mbd 2016. godine; 1.62 mbd 2017. godine). Prognozira se dalje smanjivanje proizvodnje nafte u 2018. godini, čak ispod 1.0 mbd. Dramatičan pad ponude nafte, uz nepromenjene elastičnosti ponude i tražnje, i pored potencijalnog rasta cena nafte neće popraviti, značajnije, stanje u venecuelanskoj ekonomiji. Zapravo, već su dramtično pogoršane makroekonomske performanse privrede i uveliko urušeno njeno finansiranje.
Preveliki deficiti finansiraju se štampanjem novca. Minimalne zarade su udvostručene. Međutim, takva potrošnja ne podstiče rast ekonomije već ubrzava hiperinflatornu spiralu – pad proizvodnje, zbog ekonomske krize, doveo je do nestašice roba u rafovima, a veća količina bezvrednog novca u rukama građana samo je ubrzavala rast cena (samo u prvih pet meseci 2018. godine 4.068%, 6.147%, 8.900%, 13.379% i 24.571%; respektivno). Venecuela beleži jednu od najvećih epizoda hiperinflacije u svetu (najveća u Mađarskoj 1946. godine sa 207.19% dnevnim rastom inflacije; druga u Zimbabveu 2008. godine sa 98.01% dnevnim rastom inflacije).
Stopa inflacije je poslednjeg dana maja 2018. godine dostigla stopu od 27.364% i to je dvostuko veća stopa od predviđanja MMF (April 2018 WEO report) za 2018. godinu, iako još nije polovina godine.
In recent months, Venezuela has been facing a dramatic surge in inflation – the inflation rate (i.e. hyperinflation) reached 25,000% in May 2018. In that month alone, inflation was increasing at a monthly rate of 80%. If this pace were to continue, the inflation rate would reach 100,000% by the end of 2018.
Venezuela fell into an economic crisis in 2014. The agony continued in the following years. Faced with a decline in tax revenues, the country entered a deep recession in 2015-2016 (similarly to Brazil and Russia). During 2017, Venezuela significantly reduced oil production (2.38 mbd in 2016; 1.62 mbd in 2017). Further declines in oil production were projected for 2018, even falling below 1.0 mbd. The dramatic drop in oil supply, given unchanged supply and demand elasticities, and despite the potential increase in oil prices, is not expected to substantially improve the condition of the Venezuelan economy. In fact, macroeconomic performance has already deteriorated dramatically, and the country’s financing capacity has been severely undermined.
Excessive fiscal deficits have been financed through money printing. Minimum wages were doubled. However, such spending has not stimulated economic growth; instead, it has accelerated a hyperinflationary spiral. The decline in production due to the economic crisis led to shortages of goods on store shelves, while the increasing amount of worthless money in the hands of citizens only accelerated price growth (in the first five months of 2018 alone: 4,068%, 6,147%, 8,900%, 13,379%, and 24,571%, respectively). Venezuela has experienced one of the most severe episodes of hyperinflation in the world (the largest occurred in Hungary in 1946, with a daily inflation rate of 207.19%; the second largest was in Zimbabwe in 2008, with a daily inflation rate of 98.01%).
On the last day of May 2018, the inflation rate reached 27,364%, which is more than double the level forecast by the IMF (April 2018 WEO Report) for the entire year of 2018, even though half of the year had not yet elapsed.