U posmatranom periodu 2005-2013. godina ukupni javni prihodi povećani su dva puta. Oko 30% ukupnih javnih prihoda iz konsolidovanog bilansa države čine prihodi po osnovu PDV-a. Isto učešće imaju doprinosi. Najveći rast učešća u prihodima konsolidovanog budžeta beleže prihodi od dobiti preduzeća (šest puta veći). Jedino carine, i blago porezi na dohodak građana, beleže smanjenje svog učešća u posmatranom periodu.
U okviru konsolidovanog budžeta republike u prvom kvartalu 2014. godine, u poređenju sa istim kvartalom prethodne godine, javni prihodi su zabeležili nominalni rast (1,9%), ali i realan pad (0,8%). Istovetno je sa tekućim prihodima (nominalan rast od 2,3%, realni rast od 0,4%). Uvođenje solidarnog poreza uticalo je na to da se u prvom kvartalu 2014. godine poveća udeo neporeskih prihoda (nominlano za 8,3% a realno za 5,4%). Sa druge strane, poreski prihodi su beležili realan pad od 1%, i to zbog dramatičnog pada poreza na dohodak građana (od 17,8%) i poreza na dobit (od 18%). Realan rast poreza je zabeležen kod poreza na PDV, ostalih poreza i doprinosa.
Podaci za prvi kvartal tekuće godine pokazuju da realizaicija naplate javnih prihoda odstupa od planirane, i to iz nekoliko razloga:
- pogrešna procena BDP-a,
- nizak nivo cena,
- slabljenje vrednosti dinara,
- evazija poreza.
U narednom periodu konsolidovani fiskalni deficit biće dodatno produbljen zbog posledica poplava, i to: (1) pada prihoda – manja naplate poreza, otpis poreskih dugovanja pojedinim lokalnim samoupravama, pada dodate vrednosti u pojedinim mestima; i (2) rasta rashoda – direktno finansiranje.
In the observed period from 2005 to 2013, total public revenues doubled. Approximately 30% of total public revenues in the consolidated state balance came from value added tax (VAT), while social security contributions accounted for a similar share. The largest increase in revenue share within the consolidated budget was recorded for corporate income tax revenues, which increased sixfold. By contrast, customs duties and, to a lesser extent, personal income taxes recorded a decline in their shares during the observed period.
Within the consolidated republican budget in the first quarter of 2014, compared with the same quarter of the previous year, public revenues recorded nominal growth of 1.9% but a real decline of 0.8%. A similar trend was observed for current revenues, which increased nominally by 2.3% but recorded a real increase of only 0.4%. The introduction of the solidarity tax contributed to an increase in the share of non-tax revenues in the first quarter of 2014 (nominal growth of 8.3% and real growth of 5.4%). On the other hand, tax revenues recorded a real decline of 1%, primarily due to a sharp decrease in personal income tax revenues (17.8%) and corporate income tax revenues (18%). Real growth was recorded in VAT revenues, other taxes, and social security contributions.
Data for the first quarter of the current year indicate that the realization of public revenue collection deviated from planned levels due to several factors:
- incorrect GDP projections,
- low price levels,
- depreciation of the dinar,
- tax evasion.
In the upcoming period, the consolidated fiscal deficit is expected to deepen further as a consequence of floods, due to: (1) declining revenues – lower tax collection, tax debt write-offs for certain local governments, and reduced value added in affected areas; and (2) rising expenditures – primarily direct financing.