Restriktivna monetarna politika, koja je započeta sredinom 2012. godine, dala je rezultate i umanjila inflatorne pritiske tokom 2013. godine.
Dezinflatorni faktori su: (1) niža agregatna tražnja, (2) niže cene hrane, (3) niže premije rizika, (4) stabilnost deviznog kursa i tržišta. Vraćanje poverenja i niska inflacija omogućile su NBS da početkom maja meseca 2014. godine snizi referentnu kamatnu stopu na 9%.
Tokom 2014. godine dodatan faktori koji bi mogli doprineti daljem snižavanju inflatornih pritisaka, a time i nižoj inflaciji, su fiskalna konsolidacija i strukturne reforme koje planira da sprovede Vlada Republike Srbije. Međutim, prirodne nepogode koje su zadesile Srbiju ovog proleća mogu uticati na neočekivano viši nivo cena poloprivrednih i prehrambenih proizvoda. Ali i na niži nivo BDP-a od projektovanog za 2014. godinu.
Izvor: NBS
The restrictive monetary policy, which began in mid-2012, produced results and reduced inflationary pressures during 2013.
Disinflationary factors included: (1) lower aggregate demand, (2) lower food prices, (3) lower risk premiums, and (4) exchange rate and market stability. The restoration of confidence and low inflation enabled the National Bank of Serbia to lower the key policy rate to 9% in early May 2014.
During 2014, additional factors that could contribute to a further decline in inflationary pressures, and thus to lower inflation, are fiscal consolidation and the structural reforms planned by the Government of the Republic of Serbia. However, the natural disasters that affected Serbia in the spring of that year may lead to an unexpectedly higher level of agricultural and food prices, as well as to a lower GDP level than projected for 2014.
Source: National Bank of Serbia