Postoje opravdani strahovi da će veliki kineski dug ugroziti svetsku ekonomiju, ali samo kod pristrasnih analitičara koji ne sagledavaju celokupnu kinesku ekonomiju. Tridesetpetogodišnji dvocifreni rast zasnovan na realnom sektoru, rastu izvoza i širokom izvoznom asortimanu, uz strogu kontrolu države omogućio je Kini da ove jeseni prema (MMF) BDP po paritetu kupovne moći (17.632 tril$) prestigne SAD (17.416 tril$). Kina je u prednosti u odnosu na ostale razvijene zemlje opterećene visokim dugom, jer imaju rast privrede (istina po nešto nižim stopama nego ranije), dok razvijene zemlje stagniraju ili opadaju. Za razliku od brzorastućih ekonomija, Kinu ne treba da brine iznenadan odliv kapitala i, posledica toga, kriza.
Visoko zaduživanje Kine poslednjih godina dovelo je do rekordnih 250% BDP-a u trećem kvartalu 2014. godine. Zabrinutost za kineksim dugom postoji jer rastuću zaduženost prati sporiji nominalni rast BDP-a, alli i zbog lošeg iskustva u prošlosti (Japan ranih 1990-ih, Južna Koreja krajem 1990-ih ili SAD i VB 2008). To je delimično tačno, ali nerealno da će izazvati krize enormnih razmera. To je zato što Kina kontroliše finansijski sistem i može „uskočiti“ kad zatreba sa velikim kapitalom. Uzgred, najveći deo duga je dug državnih preduzeća i pod kontrolom je velikih državnih banaka (kod banaka mali procenat loših kredita). Jedini problem koji se pojavljuje što je popustila strogoća kod odobravanja kredita. Stabilne javne finansije ukazuju na strogu kontrolu. Pokušaji su da se sa uvođenjem novog zakona o budžetu (1.1.2015) započeće sa čvrstim budžetskim ograničenjem. Gradovima i provincijama biće odobreno da se pojavljuju na tržištu obveznica (otvoreno 2008). Sve napred navedeno može gajiti sumnju da Kini prete ozbiljne poteškoće. No, šta kaže struktura privrede? Da li je ona okrnjena? Kina je zemlja koja je obezbediila ogromne količine kapitala zahvaljujući dugogodišnjim visokim stopama rasta (prosečna godišnja stopa rasta BDP-a u periodu 1979-2012. iznosila je 9,8%, dok je u periodu 1991-2012. iznosila 10,3%). Kontinuirani rast je krunisan ogromnim količinama i stranog i domaćeg kapitala. Devizne rezerve su najveće na svetu (2012. iznosile 33,89 miliona u zlatu i 3,3 bil$) i to predstavlja dodatnu sigurnost za ekonomiju i finansije. Intervencije vlasti omogućavaju i stabilnost deviznog kursa. Juan je i nominalno i realno apres(c)irao (u odnosu na dolar za četvrtinu), posmatrano prema baznoj 2001, što je posledica kontinuiranog rasta i velikog priliva kapitala.
Investicije u fiksni kapital imaju visoke stope rasta i u velikom procentu učestvuju u BDP-u. Tekući deo platnog bilansa u 2012. bio je u suficitu 193 mlrd$, od čega je za devizne rezerve izdvojeno oko 100 mlrd$ (što je rast od samo 4%, u odnosu na 2011, što je daleko niže nego recimo 2002. kada je zabeležen rast deviznih rezervi od 35% i 3 miliona u zlatu, ili 2009. 23% i 14 miliona u zlatu). Pri tome, ukupna spoljnotrgovinska robna razmena daje 47% BDP-a u 2012. godini i gde čak 95% izvoznog asortimana čine industrijski proizvodi, dok su sa 5% zastupljeni primarni proizvodi.
Kina je država koja još uvek celokupnu privrednu aktivnost zasniva na realnom sektoru privrede. Otuda, krizni udari na finansijski sektor odražavaju manje efekte, posebno što bivaju ublaženi (neštedljivim) intervencijama vlasti. Skoro 70% profita zemlji donosi teška industrija, a prema veličini preduzeća posmatrano prilično je ujednačeno učešće u profitu (velika 40,7%, srednja 24,9% i mala 34,5%). Pri tome, 77% čine domaća preduzeća. U industriji sve više dominiraju srednje-tehnološki intenzivna proizvodnja. Najveći doprinos daje sektor proizvodnje automobila i hemijskih proizvoda. Kod primarnog sektora najveći profit donose sektori rudarstva i eksploatacija nafte i gasa. Raste udeo sektora koji proizvode električne uređaje i aparate, kompijutere i telekomunikacionu opremu, kao i nemetalne mineralne proizvode. Iz godine u godinu povećava se udeo visoko-tehnološki intenzivne proizvodnje. Sve to zajedno ostavlja prostor kineskoj ekonomiji da postiže održiv privredeni rast u srednjem, pa i dugom, roku.
Kinesku ekonomiju odlikuje visok procenat zaposlenih u kontigentu ukupno aktivnog stanovništva (2012. bilo čak 97,2% ili 767 miliona). I ovo je rezultat koji je za 1 procentni poen lošijij nego 2008. godine. Stopa nezaposlenosti u Kini je dugi niz godina gotovo nepromenjena, oko 4%. Zarade su ujednačene unutar sektora privrede (33,6% primarni sektor, 30,3 sekundarni sektor i 36,3% tercijarni sektor). Podaci pokazuju da se smanjenje zarada u primarnom sektoru prelivalo na sekundarni i tercijarni sektor gotovo podjednako.
Finansijski sektor je takođe stabilan. Visoka kapitalna intenzivnost pokazuje da u bankama dominira pristup snažne aktive unutar bilansa. Stabilnost je dodatno obezbeđena kontrolom kretanja kapitala i kontrolom samih banaka od strane vlasti.
Napomena: China Statistical Yearbook 2013
There are justified fears that China’s large debt could threaten the global economy, but mainly among biased analysts who fail to consider the Chinese economy as a whole. Thirty-five years of double-digit growth based on the real sector, export expansion, and a broad export structure, combined with strict state control, enabled China this autumn – according to the IMF – to surpass the United States in GDP measured by purchasing power parity (USD 17.632 trillion versus USD 17.416 trillion). China is in a more favorable position than other developed economies burdened with high debt, as it continues to record economic growth (albeit at somewhat lower rates than before), while developed economies stagnate or decline. Unlike fast-growing emerging economies, China does not face the risk of sudden capital outflows and the crises that usually follow.
China’s high indebtedness in recent years led to a record level of 250% of GDP in the third quarter of 2014. Concerns about China’s debt exist because rising indebtedness is accompanied by slower nominal GDP growth, as well as due to negative historical experiences (Japan in the early 1990s, South Korea in the late 1990s, or the US and UK in 2008). This is partly valid, but it is unrealistic to expect a crisis of enormous proportions. This is because China controls its financial system and can intervene with substantial capital when necessary. Moreover, most of the debt belongs to state-owned enterprises and is under the control of large state-owned banks, where the share of non-performing loans remains low. The main emerging issue is the relaxation of credit approval standards. Nevertheless, stable public finances indicate strong fiscal discipline. With the introduction of the new Budget Law (effective January 1, 2015), efforts have been made to impose hard budget constraints. Cities and provinces are now allowed to issue bonds on the capital market (opened in 2008). All of the above may raise doubts about potential serious difficulties for China. However, what does the economic structure indicate? Is it fundamentally weakened?
China has accumulated enormous amounts of capital thanks to long-standing high growth rates (average annual GDP growth was 9.8% in 1979–2012 and 10.3% in 1991–2012). Continuous growth has been crowned with large inflows of both foreign and domestic capital. Foreign exchange reserves are the largest in the world (in 2012 they amounted to 33.89 million tons of gold and USD 3.3 trillion), providing additional security for the economy and financial system. Government interventions also ensure exchange-rate stability. The yuan has appreciated both nominally and in real terms (by about one quarter against the US dollar compared to the 2001 base year), reflecting sustained growth and strong capital inflows.
Fixed capital investment records high growth rates and represents a large share of GDP. The current account balance in 2012 posted a surplus of USD 193 billion, of which about USD 100 billion was allocated to foreign exchange reserves (an increase of only 4% compared to 2011, significantly lower than in 2002, when reserves grew by 35% and gold holdings by 3 million tons, or in 2009, when reserves grew by 23% and gold by 14 million tons). Total merchandise trade accounted for 47% of GDP in 2012, with industrial products making up 95% of exports, while primary products accounted for only 5%.
China remains an economy whose overall economic activity is still firmly rooted in the real sector. As a result, shocks to the financial sector have more limited effects, especially as they are mitigated by extensive government interventions. Nearly 70% of total profits are generated by heavy industry, and profit distribution by firm size is relatively balanced (large enterprises 40.7%, medium-sized 24.9%, and small enterprises 34.5%), with domestic firms accounting for 77%. Medium-technology-intensive production increasingly dominates industrial activity. The largest contributions come from automobile manufacturing and chemical products. In the primary sector, mining and oil and gas extraction generate the highest profits. The share of industries producing electrical equipment, computers, and telecommunications equipment, as well as non-metallic mineral products, is rising. Year after year, the share of high-technology-intensive production increases. Altogether, this provides room for the Chinese economy to achieve sustainable economic growth in the medium and even long term.
China’s economy is characterized by a very high employment rate within the working-age population (97.2% or 767 million people in 2012), a result only one percentage point lower than in 2008. The unemployment rate has remained nearly unchanged for many years, at around 4%. Wages are relatively evenly distributed across sectors (33.6% in the primary sector, 30.3% in the secondary sector, and 36.3% in the tertiary sector). Data indicate that wage reductions in the primary sector were transmitted almost equally to the secondary and tertiary sectors.
The financial sector is also stable. High capital intensity indicates that banks are dominated by strong asset positions on their balance sheets. Stability is further ensured by capital controls and direct government supervision of the banking sector.
Note: China Statistical Yearbook 2013