Negativna spirala (ekonomska stagnacija, niska inflacija i visoka nezaposlenost) i dalje nagriza Evrozonu. Autput Evrozone u drugom kvartalu 2014. godine stagnira. Međugodišnja stopa inflacije u julu 2014. godine je najniža od oktobra 2009. godine. Dug država Evrozone raste od 2011. godine i pored činjenice da se deficit budžeta smanjuje. Stopa nezaposlenosti je uzastopno 38. mesec dvocifrena.
Evrozona u drugom kvartalu 2014. godine nije beležila rast. Najveće ekonomije Evrozone imale su loše rezultate (Nemačka -0,2%, Francuska 0%, Italija -0,2%), dok su pozitivne stope ostvarili Španija (0,6%), Portugalija (0,6%) i Holandija (0,5%). Što je nedovoljno! Pored nepovoljnih političko-ekonomskih prilika (sukobi u Ukrajini i odnosi sa Rusijom), industrijska proizvodnja i građevinarstvo stagniraju. Sa produbljivanjem krize, u dolazećim mesecima, rast nemačke ekonomije (lokomotive Evrozone) može biti doveden u pitanje (u slučaju pada automobilske industrije).
Evrozona je i dalje u problemu niske inflacije (međugodišnja stopa inflacije u julu je 0,4%, što je najniža stopa od oktobra 2009. godine i daleko od ciljanih 2%), uz pretnju deflacije (julska deflacija iznosila 0,7%). U svim zemaljama Evrozone cene su u padu u julu mesecu, osim u Nemačkoj (0,3%), Holandiji (0,3%) i na Malti (0%). Deflacija je ozbiljno pitanje Evrozone jer se veliki broj zemalja suočava sa visokim javnim (i privatnim) dugom. Prema pojedinim analizama dug preko 90% BDP-a utiče na usporavanje privrede za 2-3 procentna poena. Javni dug je u brojnim zemljama preko 90% BDP-a (Q1 2014): Grčkoj (174,1%), Italiji (135,6%), Portugalu (132,9%), Kipru (112,2%), Belgijii (105,1%), Španiji (96,8%) i Francuskoj (96,6%).
Istovremeno, deflacija (ili niska inflacija) predstavlja opterećenje za sve dužnike jer pad cena i zarada otežavaju otplaćivanje duga (prilikom zaduživanja prihodi i zarade su rasli).
ECB je snizila kamatnu stopu na 0,05% u želji da ojača ekonomiju (kroz pomoć bankama kod kreditiranja privatnog sektora), ali je oslabio evro. Pritisci javnosti su i dalje na kvantitativnim olakšicama i labavljenju monetarne politike ECB-a (QE), čemu se protivi pre svih Bundesbanka (nema političke podrške usled straha da bi monetarne injekcije odvratile Francusku i Italiju od strukturnih reformi). Ostaje da se vidi da li će banka povući pogrešan potez zbog pogrešnih odluka političara ili ne?
Stopa nezaposlenosti gotovo da se ne smanjuje i već više od 3 godine je dvocifrena, a u julu 2014. godine bila 11,7%.
Napomena: kalkulacije autora na bazi kvartalnih podataka Eurostata.
The negative spiral (economic stagnation, low inflation, and high unemployment) continues to erode the Eurozone. Eurozone output stagnated in the second quarter of 2014. The year-on-year inflation rate in July 2014 was the lowest since October 2009. Government debt in the Eurozone has been rising since 2011, despite the fact that budget deficits have been declining. The unemployment rate has remained in double digits for 38 consecutive months.
The Eurozone recorded no growth in the second quarter of 2014. The largest Eurozone economies posted poor results (Germany -0.2%, France 0%, Italy -0.2%), while positive growth rates were achieved by Spain (0.6%), Portugal (0.6%), and the Netherlands (0.5%). This is insufficient! In addition to unfavorable political and economic conditions (the conflict in Ukraine and relations with Russia), industrial production and construction have stagnated. With the deepening of the crisis in the coming months, the growth of the German economy (the locomotive of the Eurozone) could be called into question, particularly in the event of a downturn in the automotive industry.
The Eurozone continues to face the problem of low inflation (the year-on-year inflation rate in July stood at 0.4%, the lowest since October 2009 and far below the targeted 2%), alongside the threat of deflation (July deflation amounted to 0.7%). In July, prices declined in all Eurozone countries except Germany (0.3%), the Netherlands (0.3%), and Malta (0%). Deflation represents a serious challenge for the Eurozone, as many countries are burdened with high public (and private) debt. According to some analyses, debt exceeding 90% of GDP slows economic growth by 2-3 percentage points. Public debt exceeded 90% of GDP in a number of countries (Q1 2014): Greece (174.1%), Italy (135.6%), Portugal (132.9%), Cyprus (112.2%), Belgium (105.1%), Spain (96.8%), and France (96.6%).
At the same time, deflation (or low inflation) places an additional burden on all debtors, as falling prices and wages make debt repayment more difficult, given that incomes and wages were rising at the time the debt was incurred.
The ECB cut its key interest rate to 0.05% in an effort to strengthen the economy (by supporting banks in lending to the private sector), but this move weakened the euro. Public pressure continues to mount for quantitative easing and further monetary policy loosening by the ECB (QE), which is strongly opposed by the Bundesbank (due to the lack of political support and fears that monetary injections could discourage France and Italy from undertaking structural reforms). It remains to be seen whether the central bank will make the wrong move as a consequence of misguided political decisions.
The unemployment rate has barely declined and has remained in double digits for more than three years; in July 2014, it stood at 11.7%.
Note: Author’s calculations based on quarterly Eurostat data.