Sedam najrazvijenijih zemalja sveta (G7 – Kanada, Nemačka, Francuska, Italija, Japan, Velika Britanija i SAD) beleže lošije performanse privrednog rasta od brzorastućih ekonomija (BRIKS – Brazil, Rusija, Indija, Kina i Južno Afrička Republika) tokom drugog talasa krize, u periodu 2011-2014. godina.
Najveći kumulativan rast BDP kod zemalja G7, u posmatranom periodu, zabeležila je Nemačka sa 10,6%, potom slede Amerika (7,4%) i Kanada (6,1%), a zatim Velika Britanija (5,1%) i Japan (4%). U nepovoljnijoj poziciji je Francuska koja je dostigla svega 1,1%, dok Italija beleži veliki pad od čak 5%.
Sa druge strane kumulativan rast zemalja BRIKS-a je daleko viši. Najveći rast autputa beleže Kina sa 27,8% i Indija 18%, dok su preostale tri zemlje (Rusija, Brazil i Južno Afrička Republika) ostvarile približno istovetan rast od oko 6%. Najveći rast zemlje BRIKS-a ostvaruju zahvaljujući sve većoj međusobnoj razmeni i to u nacionalnim valutama (pogoršavanje pozicija dolara kao dugogodišnje glavnog sredstva plaćanja i bilansnih pozicija banaka usled nerealizovanih provizija od tranaskcija). Pored toga, Kina ne samo da ulazi na nova tržišta, već širi postojeća tržišna učešća (u julu 2014. godine izvoz Kine je beležio međugodišnji rast u SAD za 12,3% a u EU za 17%).
Proces konvergencije pokazuje da manje razvijene ekonomije brže rastu od razvijenih ekonomija i da na taj način mogu smanjiti razliku u stepenu razvijenosti u odnosu na razvijene ekonomije. Tokom posmatranog perioda, brzorastuće ekonomije, posebno Kina i Indija, ostvarivale su više stope privrednog rasta i njihov kumulativni rast se iz godine u godinu brže povećavao od Nemačkog rasta (Kina je 2012. godine preuzela poziciju drugog svetskog izvoznika od Nemačke). Otuda, česte su revizije zvaničnih međunarodnih institucija o procenama kada će autput zemalja BRIKS biti iznad autputa G20. Sa produžavanjem (negativnih) efekata svetske krize taj datum se sve više približava.
Napomena: kao baznu godinu uzet je Q1 2011. godine jer je to prvi kvartal za koji OECD raspolaže sa kvartalnim podacima za realni BDP Kine (http://stats.oecd.org/ 23.08.2014. 06:07)
The seven most developed economies in the world (the G7 – Canada, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) recorded weaker economic growth performance than fast-growing economies (the BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) during the second wave of the crisis, in the period 2011–2014.
Among the G7 countries, Germany recorded the highest cumulative GDP growth in the observed period, at 10.6%, followed by the United States (7.4%) and Canada (6.1%), then the United Kingdom (5.1%) and Japan (4%). France was in a less favorable position, achieving growth of only 1.1%, while Italy recorded a significant decline of as much as 5%.
By contrast, the cumulative growth of the BRICS countries was considerably higher. The highest output growth was recorded in China (27.8%) and India (18%), while the remaining three countries (Russia, Brazil, and South Africa) achieved approximately similar growth of around 6%. The strongest growth among the BRICS countries has been driven by increasing mutual trade, increasingly conducted in national currencies (reflecting the weakening position of the US dollar as the long-standing dominant means of payment and the deterioration of banks’ balance-sheet positions due to unrealized transaction fees). In addition, China has not only entered new markets but has also expanded its existing market shares (in July 2014, China’s exports recorded year-on-year growth of 12.3% to the United States and 17% to the EU).
The process of convergence indicates that less developed economies grow faster than developed economies and can thus reduce the development gap relative to advanced economies. During the observed period, fast-growing economies – particularly China and India – achieved higher economic growth rates, and their cumulative growth increased year by year at a faster pace than that of Germany (in 2012, China overtook Germany as the world’s second-largest exporter). Consequently, international institutions have frequently revised their official estimates regarding when BRICS output will surpass that of the G20. As the (negative) effects of the global crisis persist, this date is drawing increasingly closer.
Note: Q1 2011 was taken as the base period, as it is the first quarter for which the OECD provides quarterly data on China’s real GDP (http://stats.oecd.org/, accessed on 23 August 2014, 06:07).