Ukupan dug Kine od 206,3% BDP-a je i dalje niži od duga razvijenih ekonomija (podaci za Q2 2011, a za zemlje * Q1 2011). Kod deset najvećih ekonomija dug privatnog sektora (domaćinstva, korporacija i nefinansijske institucije) smanjen je za 2% ili 1,5 biliona dolara od najvišeg nivoa tokom 2008. godine. Sa druge strane, kao posledica finansijske krize, dug države u posmatranom periodu je porastao za 26% ili 7,8 biliona dolara. U sedam od deset najvećih ekonomija udeo ukupnog duga u BDP-u je povećan, dok je pad ovog racia zabeležen u SAD, Južnoj Koreji i Australiji. Tri izdvojene zemlje Evrozone beležile su visoku zaduženost.
Ukupna zaduženost kineske ekonomije prešla je nivo od 200% BDP-a (Q4 2001 ≈ 100%, Q4 2011 = 166,6%; Q2 2013 = 190%; Q2 2014 = 206,3%). Iako se suočava sa visokim dugom, Kini je manji problem nivo zaduženosti nego što je tempo zaduživanja. Spoljni dug Kine trenutno je na nivou od oko 1 triliona dolara, ali ne predstavlja veliku zabrinutost s obzirom da je to deseti deo BDP-a, a da su ukupne devizne rezervi četiri puta veće. Najveći deo ukupnog duga čini dug državnih banaka odobren državnim preduzećima. Tempo zaduživanja je nešto izraženiji poslednjih godina, ali ne i zabrinjavajući, jer je u odnosu na 2009. godinu zabeležen rasta od 58%, što je posledica kreditnog finansiranja vladinih stimulativnih programa.
Kina i dalje sprovodi labavu monetarnu politiku (kroz kreditne olakšice od strane NBK) kako bi privredni rast vratilio na željeni nivo. To predstavlja opterećenje za privredu. Zaduženost od preko 200% i prosečni troškovi finansiranja od oko 7% pritiskaju kineske zajmoprimce da obezbede rast gotovine (chas-flow) od 14%, kako bi pokrili obaveze po osnovu kamata bez ugrožavanja profitabilnosti. U suprotnom, biće primorani da se dodatno zadužuju! Ostaje da se vidi da li će ovo predstavljati veliko opterećenje za ekonomiju koja nominalano raste oko 9%.
China’s total debt, at 206.3% of GDP, remains lower than the debt levels of developed economies (data for Q2 2011, and for individual countries Q1 2011). Among the ten largest economies, private-sector debt (households, corporations, and non-financial institutions) declined by 2%, or USD 1.5 trillion, from its peak during 2008. On the other hand, as a consequence of the financial crisis, government debt increased by 26%, or USD 7.8 trillion, over the same period. In seven of the ten largest economies, the share of total debt in GDP increased, while a decline in this ratio was recorded in the United States, South Korea, and Australia. Three selected Eurozone countries recorded particularly high levels of indebtedness.
Total indebtedness of the Chinese economy has exceeded 200% of GDP (Q4 2001 ≈ 100%; Q4 2011 = 166.6%; Q2 2013 = 190%; Q2 2014 = 206.3%). Although China is facing a high level of debt, the pace of borrowing, rather than the absolute level of indebtedness, represents the greater challenge. China’s external debt currently stands at around USD 1 trillion, but this does not pose a major concern given that it amounts to only about one-tenth of GDP, while total foreign exchange reserves are four times larger. The largest share of total debt consists of loans provided by state-owned banks to state-owned enterprises. The pace of borrowing has been somewhat more pronounced in recent years, but not alarming, as an increase of 58% compared to 2009 has been recorded, reflecting credit-financed government stimulus programs.
China continues to pursue a loose monetary policy (through credit easing by the People’s Bank of China) in order to return economic growth to the desired level. This, however, places an additional burden on the economy. Indebtedness exceeding 200% of GDP and average financing costs of around 7% put pressure on Chinese borrowers to achieve cash-flow growth of 14% in order to cover interest obligations without undermining profitability. Otherwise, they will be forced to borrow even more. It remains to be seen whether this will represent a significant burden for an economy growing at a nominal rate of around 9%.