Iako rezultati poslovanja Svetske banke ukazuju na poboljšanje poslovnog ambijenta regiona jugoistočne Evrope, on nije atraktivan za strane investitore. To pokazuje pad priliva SDI u poslednjim godinama.
Sa svetskom ekonomskom krizom usledio je pad priliva SDI u regionu jugoistočne Evrope, koji je kontinuirano nastavljen do 2013. godine, sa prekidom u 2011. godini. U posmatranom periodu, najveće poboljšanje i kontinuirano kretanje SDI ima Albanija, dok je u nezavidnom položaju Slovenija. To govori da pokazatelji poslovanja Svetske banke zapravo nisu dovoljni za privlačenje stranih investitora, već su oni samo deo ukupnog ambijenta.
Do krizne 2008. godine regioin je postao atraktivan za strana ulaganja (rast SDI u periodu 2002-2008. sa 2,1 na 13,3 mlrd$). Najveći napredak je usledio 2006. godine sa snažnim privrednim rastom, boljom investicionom klimom i potpisanim sporazumima o stabilizaciji sa EU (2005). Nakon krizne 2008. godine krenuo je kontinuirani pad SDI. Tokom 2009. godine brojne TNK su povukle svoje resurse iz Hrvatske, Makedonije i ostalih zemalja regiona (povlačeći kredite iz fililjala u nameri da poprave bilansne pozicije kod kuće). Izuzetak je predstavljala Albanija, sa povoljnim poslovnim ambijentom i nastavkom privatizacije državnih preduzeća.
Oporavak je usledio sa 2011. godinom, kada je porastao priliv SDI u prerađivačkoj industriji – održani konkurentni troškovi proizvodnje i otvoren pristup tržištima EU. U Srbiji je te godine privatizovan ketering servis JAT-a i Telekom je transformisan u otvoreno akcionarsko društvo (početkom 2012. godine), u Bosni i Hercegovini privatizacija 25 velikih državnih kompanija donela je 5 mlrd$ za 2013. godinu, dok je u Hrvatskoj država zadržala manjinski paket u 600 preduzeća i većinski paket u preko 60 kompanija.
U 2012. godini pad priliva SDI u regionu od 41% posledica je prvenstveno smanjenja investicija iz komšijskih zemalja, koji su glavni investitori u širem regionu. I dalje su prednosti regiona: relativno niski troškovi radne snage, olakšan pristup tržištima i privatizacija državnih preduzeća. U tom pogledu dominirali su Hrvatska i Albanija. Nastavak privatizacije u sektoru usluga u 2013. godini održao je priliv SDI na višem nivou nego 2012. godine (za 43%). Najveći rast priliva SDI beležila je Albanija, zahvaljujući privatizaciji 4 hidroelektrane (ukupno 1,2 mlrd$) i akvizicijom (Azerbejdžanske kompanije) 70% glavne naftne kompanije ARMO. U Srbiji je privatizacija u oblasti telekomunikacija (SBB/Telemach) donela priliv od 1 mlrd$, kao i prodaja 49% avio kompanije Etihadu.
Izvor: FDI Reports UNCTAD
Although the World Bank’s business performance indicators point to an improvement in the business environment of the Southeast European region, it remains unattractive to foreign investors. This is evidenced by the decline in FDI inflows in recent years.
With the onset of the global economic crisis, FDI inflows into Southeast Europe declined and continued to fall until 2013, with a temporary interruption in 2011. Over the observed period, Albania recorded the most significant improvement and the most stable FDI inflows, while Slovenia found itself in a particularly unfavorable position. This suggests that the World Bank’s business indicators alone are insufficient to attract foreign investors and represent only one element of the overall investment climate.
Up to the crisis year of 2008, the region became increasingly attractive to foreign investment, with FDI inflows rising from USD 2.1 billion in 2002 to USD 13.3 billion in 2008. The strongest progress occurred in 2006, driven by robust economic growth, an improved investment climate, and the signing of Stabilisation and Association Agreements with the EU in 2005. After the 2008 crisis, a continuous decline in FDI inflows followed. During 2009, numerous multinational corporations withdrew resources from Croatia, North Macedonia, and other countries in the region, repatriating loans from local subsidiaries in order to strengthen their balance sheets at home. Albania was an exception, benefiting from a favorable business environment and the continued privatization of state-owned enterprises.
A recovery occurred in 2011, when FDI inflows into the manufacturing sector increased, supported by competitive production costs and open access to EU markets. In Serbia, the JAT catering service was privatized that year, and Telekom was transformed into a publicly listed joint-stock company in early 2012. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the privatization of 25 large state-owned companies generated USD 5 billion in 2013, while in Croatia the state retained minority stakes in around 600 enterprises and majority ownership in more than 60 companies.
In 2012, a 41% decline in FDI inflows across the region was primarily the result of reduced investments from neighboring countries, which are the main investors in the broader region. The region’s advantages nevertheless remained: relatively low labor costs, facilitated market access, and the privatization of state-owned enterprises. In this regard, Croatia and Albania stood out. Continued privatization in the services sector in 2013 sustained FDI inflows at a level 43% higher than in 2012. The largest increase in FDI was recorded in Albania, due to the privatization of four hydropower plants (USD 1.2 billion in total) and the acquisition of a 70% stake in the main oil company ARMO by an Azerbaijani firm. In Serbia, privatization in the telecommunications sector (SBB/Telemach) generated USD 1 billion in inflows, along with the sale of a 49% stake in the airline to Etihad.
Source: UNCTAD FDI Reports