Visoke stope privrednog rasta (do 7% u prethodnoj deceniji) Nigerija postiže zahvaljujući visokom prilivu deviza od izvoza nafte (15% BDP-a). U nediverzifikovanoj ekonomiji preduzete reforme daju rezultate zahvaljujući podršci stranog kapitala i MMF-a. Da li će beg kapitala odvesti Nigeriju u krizu ili će se vlasti odbraniti blagovremenom diverzifikacijom privrede, ostaje da se vidi!
Visok rast privrede u prethodnoj deceniji (po cenama 1990 u proseku iznosio skoro 7%) rezultat je izvoza nafte, sirovina i resursa. Rast postoji zahvaljujući uvozu kapitala u sektoru telekomunikacija, finansijskom sektoru i tržištu akcija (u 2013. godini beleže priliv 92% uvezenog kapitala). Veliki udeo zauzima filmska industrija Holivuda.
Ostali sektori privrede su nedovoljno interesantni za strana ulaganja. Poljoprivreda zapostavljena – loše upravljanje, infrastruktura i politika. Prihodi od nafte vode ka stagnaciji jer izostaju investicije u tehnološke i savremene metode proizvodnje. Auto indsutrija u padu usled strukturnih refromi koje su smanjile kupovnu moć potrošača, dovele do pada proizvodnje, rasta uvoza „polovnjaka“ i povećanog krijumčarenja. Visoka uvozna zavisnost ukazuje na visok procenat odliva BDP-a. Precenjena nacionalna valuta je pojeftinjavala uvoz, dok su visoki troškovi proizvodnje (praćeni neredovnim snabdevanjem energenatima) ugrožavali iskorišćenost proizvodnih kapaciteta (svega 30%). Brojne fabrike zatvorene, osim onih u sektorima sa jeftinom radnom snagom. Dohodak po glavi stanovnika u 2002. godini prepolovljen je u odnosu na 1970-te godine. Nenaftni sektor zapao je u probleme, a masovno je rastao neformalni sektor ekonomske aktivnosti (75%). Posledica toga bio je rast nezaposlenosti i siromaštvo.
Reforme iz 2004. godine podržane od strane MMF (usledio oprost duga Pariskog i Londonskog kluba poverilaca). Osnažile su penzioni fond, smanjile javni dug i vodile uspostavljanju tržišne ekonomije. Ali je Nigerija pod pritiskom da prihvati više milijardi vredne kredite za železnicu, elektrane, puteve i drugu infrastrukturu.
Vlada uvodi plan diverzifikacije ekonomije, sa ciljem podsticanja privrednog rasta i smanjenja siromaštva – kroz sektore privrede u kojima poseduje komparativne i konkurentske prednosti (proizvodnja hrane i poljoprivrednih proizvoda, metala i čvrstih metalnih prerađevina, građevinarstvo, laka industrija i sektor usluga). Recimo, ulaganja u proizvodnju cementa smanjila su uvoznu zavisnost, i istovremeno povećala proizvodnju, zaposlenost i izvoz. Postoji ideja da se uklone ograničenja poslovanja kako bi osnažila infrastruktura, ojačala industrijska proizvodnja, smanjili troškove pozajmljivanja i mobilizovali sredstva za realni sektor.
Za razliku od prošlosti, podsticanji prerađivačkoj industriji i sektoru MSP ogledaju se u velikim poreskim olakšicama, jefitnom finansiranju putem dugoročnih kredita i jednocifrenim kamatnim stopama iz bankarskog sektora (preko razvojne banke). Plan je da se zaštite domaći proizvođači od jefitne uvozne konkurencije.
Poroblemi za nediverzifikovanu ekonomiju nastaju sa padom cena nafte na svetskom tržištu. Smanjeni priliv deviza nadomeštava se trošenjem deviznih rezervi – za potrebe budžeta države i lokalne samouprave. Raste javni dug! Dok postoje visoke stope rasta, visoka cena nafte i povoljan prinos na kapital, neće biti odliva kapitala pa ni brige za Nigeriju. Međutim, kada kapitalu opadne prinos, i usledi manji priliv deviza od izvoza nafte (projekcije za naredni period), te topljenje deviznih rezervi, špekulanti stupaju na scenu. Iznenada kapital odlazi iz zemlje, a ekonomija zapada u probleme. Već viđen scenario!
Napomena: Kvartalni rast realnog BDP, q0q, stalne cene 2010
Izvor: National Bureau of Statistics, FR Nigeria
High rates of economic growth (up to 7% in the previous decade) in Nigeria have been achieved thanks to strong foreign exchange inflows from oil exports (around 15% of GDP). In an undiversified economy, the reforms undertaken have yielded results largely due to the support of foreign capital and the IMF. Whether capital flight will push Nigeria into crisis or whether the authorities will manage to defend the economy through timely diversification remains to be seen.
The strong economic growth recorded over the past decade (averaging nearly 7% at 1990 prices) has been driven primarily by exports of oil, raw materials, and natural resources. Growth has also been supported by capital inflows into the telecommunications sector, the financial sector, and the stock market (which accounted for 92% of imported capital inflows in 2013). A significant share is also held by the film industry, Nollywood.
Other sectors of the economy remain largely unattractive to foreign investment. Agriculture has been neglected due to poor management, inadequate infrastructure, and weak policies. Oil revenues have led to stagnation, as investments in modern technologies and advanced production methods have been insufficient. The automotive industry has declined as a result of structural reforms that reduced consumers’ purchasing power, led to falling domestic production, increased imports of used vehicles, and intensified smuggling. High import dependence indicates a substantial leakage of GDP. An overvalued national currency made imports cheaper, while high production costs—exacerbated by irregular energy supply—undermined capacity utilization, which fell to only about 30%. Numerous factories were closed, except those operating in labor-intensive sectors. GDP per capita in 2002 was halved compared to the 1970s. The non-oil sector fell into distress, while the informal sector expanded massively, accounting for approximately 75% of economic activity. The consequences were rising unemployment and widespread poverty.
The reforms implemented in 2004, supported by the IMF (and followed by debt relief from the Paris and London Clubs of creditors), strengthened pension funds, reduced public debt, and facilitated the transition toward a market economy. However, Nigeria remains under pressure to accept multi-billion-dollar loans for railways, power plants, roads, and other infrastructure projects.
The government has introduced an economic diversification plan aimed at stimulating growth and reducing poverty by developing sectors in which Nigeria has comparative and competitive advantages—food and agricultural production, metals and metal products, construction, light manufacturing, and services. For example, investments in cement production have reduced import dependence while simultaneously increasing output, employment, and exports. There is also an initiative to remove business constraints in order to strengthen infrastructure, boost industrial production, reduce borrowing costs, and mobilize financial resources for the real sector.
Unlike in the past, support for the manufacturing sector and SMEs is reflected in substantial tax incentives, affordable long-term financing, and single-digit interest rates provided by the banking sector through development banks. The plan also includes protecting domestic producers from cheap import competition.
Problems for an undiversified economy emerge when oil prices decline on the global market. Reduced foreign exchange inflows are compensated by drawing down foreign reserves to finance the state and local government budgets. Public debt rises. As long as growth rates remain high, oil prices elevated, and returns on capital favorable, capital outflows are unlikely and concerns about Nigeria remain limited. However, when returns on capital decline, oil export revenues fall (as projected for the coming period), and foreign reserves erode, speculative pressures intensify. Capital suddenly exits the country, and the economy slips into crisis—a familiar scenario.
Note: Quarterly growth of real GDP, q-o-q, constant 2010 prices
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Federal Republic of Nigeria