Inflatorna očekivanja daleko od željene inflacije teraju FED da ponovo podigne referentnu kamatnu stopu, na 4,5%. Očekivanja su da će se na 5% zadržati neko vreme u Q1 2023. Ostaje da se vidi da li će strukturalna inflacija (nakon inflacije tražnje i inflacije proizvodnje) odgovoriti na dirigovana inflatorna očekivanja FED-a. Ključno je da i ostale CB prate ovaj trend i gotovo sve velike ekonomije su povećale svoje referentne kamatne stope (zanemarujući dominantne probleme na strani ponude) – ECB na 2,5% (sa 2%), BoE na 3,5% (sa 3%), Švajcarska na 1% (sa 0,5%), Australija na 3,1% (sa 2,85%), Kanada na 4.25% (sa 3,75%). Suprotno njima, nepromenjene referentne kamatne stope su u Japanu, Rusiji, Kini, Singapuru. Visoke stope su i dalje u Latinskoj Americi – Meksiko 10,5% (porast u decembru za 0,5%), Brazil 13.75% (bez promena u decembru), Argentina 75% (nepromenjeno od novembra).
Federal Reserve Board – Implementation Note issued December 14, 2022
Inflationary expectations, far from the desired inflation, force the Fed to raise the reference interest rate again, to 4.5%. It is expected to hold at 5% for some time in Q1 2023. It remains to be seen whether structural inflation (after demand inflation and output inflation) will respond to the Fed’s guided inflation expectations. Crucially, other CBs follow this trend and almost all major economies have increased their benchmark interest rates (ignoring the dominant supply-side issues) – ECB to 2.5% (from 2%), BoE to 3.5% (from 3%), Switzerland to 1% (from 0.5%), Australia to 3.1% (from 2.85%), Canada to 4.25% (from 3.75%). Contrary to them, reference interest rates are unchanged in Japan, Russia, China, and Singapore. High rates are still in Latin America – Mexico 10.5% (increase in December by 0.5%), Brazil 13.75% (no change in December), Argentina 75% (unchanged from November).