FED ponovo podigao kamatne stope za isti procenat – 0.75% u cilju daljih restriktivnih monetarnih akcija kojima bi vratili stabilnost cena i ciljani nivo inflacije od 2%. Dosadašnji nivo kamatnih stopa (ove godine podigli kamatne stope za 3-3/4 procentna poena – viši nivo nego što se ranije očekivalo) nije obezbedio značajniji rast (i pored realnog rasta Q3 od 2.6%), skromnog rasta potrošnje i proizvodnje, usled nižeg raspoloživog dohotka, nižih prihoda države, pada u stambenom sektoru, viših hipoteka, nižih fiksnih investicija, neravnoteže na tržištu rada (i pored novo-uposlenih oko 4 miliona u 2022.), ukorenjenih inflatornih očekivanja (pritisci na cene u širokom spektru roba i usluga, kao i u širokom spektru domaćinstava, preduzeća i i finansijskih tržišta), ali ponajviše iz straha od „mekog prizemljenja“ (soft landing = američki psihološki izraz za približavanje recesiji). Najave su da će ići manjim povećanjima, ali višim plafonom kamatnih stopa. Međutim, biće potrebno vreme da bi se ostvarili puni efekti monetarnog ograničenja, zbog kašnjenja (lags) sa kojima monetarna politika utiče na privrednu aktivnost i inflaciju. Iako svesni činjenice da će smanjenje inflacije zahtevati rast ispod trenda i dodatno pogoršanje na tržištu rada, odluka FED-a je da preduzima snažne korake kojima će nadalje da ublažava potražnju (da bi je uskladili sa ponudom).
The Fed – November 1-2, 2022 FOMC Meeting
The FED again raised interest rates by the same percentage – 0.75%, with the aim of further restrictive monetary actions that would restore price stability and the target inflation level of 2%. The current level of interest rates (this year they raised interest rates by 3-3/4 percentage points – a higher level than previously expected) did not ensure significant growth (despite real growth in Q3 of 2.6%), modest growth in consumption and production, due to lower disposable income, lower state revenues, decline in the housing sector, higher mortgages, lower fixed investments, imbalance in the labor market (despite newly employed about 4 million in 2022), entrenched inflationary expectations (price pressures in a wide range of goods and services, as well as in a wide range of households, businesses and financial markets), but mostly from the fear of a „soft landing“ (an American psychological term for approaching a recession). The announcements are that they will go with smaller increases, but with a higher interest rate ceiling. However, it will take time to realize the full effects of monetary restraint, due to the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation. While aware that reducing inflation will require below-trend growth and further deterioration in the labor market, the Fed’s decision is to take strong steps to further ease demand (to match supply).