MMF je objavio vest o pretnji za globalnu finansijsku stabilnost sa (Trampovom) poreskom reformom u SAD (predlaže snižavaje poreza i ublažavanje finansijskih propisa). Predviđanja idu u pravcu da viškove prihoda kompanije ne bi reinvestirale, i time podsticale rast ekonomije, već bi ih plasirali u kupovinu finansijske aktive, repatrijaciju dobiti ili isplatu dividendi. Pod takvim okolnostima brže bi rasle kamatne stope i inflacija, došlo bi do pada potrošnje i usporavanja rasta američke ekonomije, koja je pokazala oporavak u poslednjih šest meseci. To bi dalje, prema izveštaju MMF-a uticalo na rast globalne premije na rizik sa negativnim posledicama po finasnijsku stabilnost u svetu, i dalje novu globalnu krizu.
Global Financial Stability Report: Getting the Policy Mix Right
For the third time in six months, the Fed increased the reference interest rate (from 1% to 1.25%), although inflation has been below the target level for five years. According to the FOMC’s expectations, monetary policy is gradually being adjusted, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will further strengthen. Productivity growth insufficient and cyclical – it depends on whether the economy is growing or declining. Household consumption has increased in recent months, and fixed investments in business have continued to expand. Inflation at the twelve-month level is expected to remain slightly below 2% in the near future, but to stabilize around the target of 2% in the medium term.