Prognoziranje je uobičajen statistički zadatak u poslovanju jer pomaže u odlučivanju o rasporedu proizvodnje, transporta i osoblja, i daje smernice za dugoročno strateško planiranje. Ipak, poslovno prognoziranje se često radi površno i često se meša sa planiranjem i ciljevima. To su tri različita pojma.
Prognoziranje je predviđanje budućnosti koliko god je to moguće precizno, pomoću raspoloživih podataka, uključujući istorijske podatke i poznavanje budućih događaja koji mogu uticati na prognozu.
Ciljevi su ono što bi hteli da se desi. Ciljevi bi trebalo da budu povezani sa prognozama i planovima, ali to nije uvek slučaj. Često se ciljevi postavljaju bez plana kako da se ostvare, i bez prognoze da li su realni.
Planiranje je odgovor na prognoze i planove. Planiranje uključuje određivanje odgovarajućih akcija koje su neophodne da bi se poklopile prognoze sa ciljevima.
Prognoze bi trebalo da budu sastavni deo donošenja odluka menadzmenta pošto mogu igrati vaćnu ulogu u mnogim delovima kompanije. Moderne organizacije zahtevaju kratkoročne, srednjeročne i dugoročne prognoze, u zavisnosti od specifične primene.
Kratkoročne prognoze su potrebne kod planiranja kadrova, proizvodnje i transporta. Kao deo procesa planiranja, prognoza potražnje je takodje često potrebna.
Srednjeročne prognoze određuju potrebu za resursima u budućnosti, da bi se nabavili sirovi materijali, zaposlili kadrovi ili kupile mašine i potrebna oprema.
Dugoročne prognoze se koriste kod strateških planiranja. Takve odluke moraju da uzmu u obzir prilike na tržištu, faktore okruženja i interne resurse.
Organizacija mora da razvije sistem prognoziranja koji uključuje nekoliko pristupa. Takav sistem zahteva razvoj ekspertize u identifikovanju problema prognoziranja, primenu različitih metoda prognoziranja, selekciju odgovarajuće metode za svaki problem, i ocenu i preispitivanje metoda prognoziranja tokom vremena. Takođe je važno da postoji jaka organizaciona podrška za korišćenje formalnih metoda prognoziranja ako se planira njihovo uspešno korišćenje.
Forecasting is a common statistical task in business because it helps make decisions about production, transportation, and personnel schedules, and provides guidance for long-term strategic planning. However, business forecasting is often done superficially and is often confused with planning and goals. Those are three different terms.
Forecasting is predicting the future as accurately as possible using available data, including historical data and knowledge of future events that may affect the forecast.
Goals are what you would like to see happen. Goals should be linked to forecasts and plans, but this is not always the case. Often goals are set without a plan of how to achieve them, and without a forecast as to whether they are realistic.
Planning is a response to forecasts and plans. Planning involves determining the appropriate actions necessary to match forecasts with objectives.
Forecasts should be an integral part of management decision making as they can play an important role in many areas of the company. Modern organizations require short-term, medium-term and long-term forecasts, depending on the specific application.
Short-term forecasts are needed when planning personnel, production and transport. As part of the planning process, demand forecasting is also often required.
Medium-term forecasts determine the need for resources in the future, in order to acquire raw materials, hire staff or buy machinery and equipment.
Long-term forecasts are used in strategic planning. Such decisions must take into account market opportunities, environmental factors and internal resources.
An organization must develop a forecasting system that includes several approaches. Such a system requires the development of expertise in identifying forecasting problems, the application of different forecasting methods, the selection of the appropriate method for each problem, and the evaluation and review of forecasting methods over time. It is also important that there is strong organizational support for the use of formal forecasting methods if their successful use is planned.