Analiza zarada i nezaposlenosti na uzorku podataka iz perioda januar 2000 – mart 2014. godina pokazala je da između zarada i nezaposlenosti postoji pozitivna relativno slaba korelacija (r=0,32). To je u suprotnosti sa teorijskim modelom Filipsove krive, koji izražava negativnu korelisanost zarada i nezaposlenosti.
Nerealno visok rast zarada u početnim godinama tranziciji davao je, zajedno sa fiksiranim deviznim kursem, prividno viši životni standard. To je ostavilo političarima prostor za novi mandat, a ekonomiju vodilo u sve dublju eksternu neravnotežu.
Rapidan rast zarada zaustavljen je početkom 2003. godine i od tada se beleži blaži rast zarada sve do krizne 2009. godine kada je u nizu meseci beležen negativan rast (pad) zarada. Istovremeno, nezaposlenost nije pratila privrednu aktivnosti jer je s početka tranzicije u većoj meri bila uslovljena brzom privatizacijom (šok terapijom). U godinama bržeg rasta srpske prvirede (2004-2005. i 2007-2008.) nezaposlenost se smanjivala, što je odgovaralo teorijskom konceptu Okunovog zakona. Negativni efekti krize usporavali su privrednu aktivnost što je dodatno produbilo ionako visoku nezaposlenost.
Regresiona analiza pokazala je da je rast nezaposlenosti od 1% uticao na rast zarada od 0,7% (ili 0,21 jedinicu po jedinici nezaposlenosti) tokom posmatranog perioda.
The analysis of wages and unemployment based on data from the period January 2000 to March 2014 shows that there is a positive but relatively weak correlation between wages and unemployment (r = 0.32). This finding is contrary to the theoretical Phillips curve model, which implies a negative relationship between wages and unemployment.
Unrealistically high wage growth in the early years of the transition, combined with a fixed exchange rate regime, created the illusion of a higher standard of living. This provided politicians with room to secure new mandates, while at the same time pushing the economy into an increasingly deep external imbalance.
Rapid wage growth was halted in early 2003, after which a more moderate wage growth was recorded until the crisis year of 2009, when negative wage growth (declines) was observed over several months. At the same time, unemployment did not closely follow economic activity, as in the early transition period it was largely driven by rapid privatization (“shock therapy”). During periods of faster economic growth in Serbia (2004-2005 and 2007-2008), unemployment declined, which was consistent with the theoretical concept of Okun’s law. The adverse effects of the crisis slowed economic activity and further deepened the already high level of unemployment.
Regression analysis indicates that a 1% increase in unemployment led to a 0.7% increase in wages (or 0.21 units per unit increase in unemployment) over the observed period.