Economic overview of the distribution channels used by Eastern European small farms for their agricultural products

July 2022

Author: Vladimir Ristanović

The role of small farms in agricultural production is particularly important for less developed economies, with a high share of agriculture in GDP and a lower level of national income. These economies have a high share of small-scale farms in the total number of registered farms, measured by the size of an agricultural holding. The paper thoroughly analyses the distribution channels of the agricultural products of Moldova (MDA), Romania (ROM), and Serbia (SRB). The data sources for this analysis are taken from the survey conducted on 1 608 small-scale farms in the above-mentioned countries in 2019. The aim of the paper is to develop a model that could enable the structured analysis of distribution channels. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used for efficient assessment and as a criterion for choosing the most appropriate distribution channel. The results of the analysis show that small-scale farms mostly place their products in green markets and processing plants and that the quality and the price of agricultural products are the dominant criteria for the selection of a channel. The results of the applied model indicate that the model is stable and that small-scale farms can choose the optimal distribution channel by using this study.

International Trade Flows of the Balkan States, The Review of International Affairs

February 2022

Author: Vladimir Ristanović

International economic relations are immensely important for small economies, such as the countries of the Western Balkans (WBC). The importance of economic relations is a key link in the overall economic growth and development, especially in international trade in goods. This paper analyses international trade flows of the WBC and the EU using the gravity panel data model in the period from 2006 to 2020. The research aims to assess the international trade flows between the Balkan countries and the EU, bearing in mind that they conduct the largest volume of trade with the EU member states. Simultaneously, this approach will enable a clearer view of the economic relations of candidate countries during the EU negotiation process for potential membership. The results indicate that the highest volume of trade is achieved with wealthy economies, measured by the development of the economy and the size of the market measured by the number of inhabitants, while the lowest volume of trade is achieved with distant economies. The use of the gravity model in its basic form provides satisfactory model estimates, while the extended model provides additional information on mutual commodity flows with additional variables and dummy variables in the model.

Export of Agricultural Products from Serbia to the EU – Panel Gravity Model

January 2022

Author: Vladimir Ristanović, Co-author Aleksandra Tošović Stevanović

This paper will analyse the export of agricultural products of Serbia to the EU during the period from 2001 to 2017. A panel gravity model was used to assess the effects of trade flows. The main advantage of the gravity model is the application of basic indicators of the economy and the ability to evaluate panel series. The obtained results show that the size of the economy, measured by gross domestic product, the size of the market of foreign trade partners, measured by population, and the distance between trading partner countries, have measurable effects on the export of agricultural products from Serbia to the EU. Using a simple econometric model, we analysed the effects of Serbia's international trade and noticed that there is significant room for improving the exchange between Serbia and EU members. A multi-variable model would provide more information to trade policy makers.

Fear of Commitment: Weak Institutions, Volatile Economy, and the Prevalence of Short-term International Capital

May 2021

Author: Vladimir Ristanović, Co-author Nikola Tasic

This paper shows that weak legal and political institutions and high macroeconomic volatility shorten the maturity of cross-border bank lending. Although these results are confirmed in the previous literature, this paper uses a broader panel data set of 135 countries from 1983 to 2012. Data also suggest new finding that the maturity of international bank credit and per capita GDP are positively correlated. The share of debt incurred by banks shortens the maturity, while the share of debt incurred by governments lengthen the maturity of cross-border credit. Our results are robust after we control for potential endogeneity.

Operational Risk Management Using Multi-Criteria Assessment (AHP Model)

April 2021

Author: Vladimir Ristanović, Co-authors: Dinko PRIMORAC, Goran KOZINA

Decision making and management are synonyms. Banks are facing a number of business risks and operational risk is prevalent. Risk management is related to making decisions; therefore, it is important for the whole organization. The aim of this paper is to develop a decision-making system when choosing the method of operational risk management by using the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP). AHP is an efficient process in solving decision-making problems. The final decision depends on the evaluation of a set of alternatives and decision criteria. Therefore, AHP defines the criteria related to operational risk and the alternatives that the bank management can undertake in order to successfully manage operational risk. The main purpose of the process is to find appropriate solutions for defined user factors in the current competitive environment. The results, obtained by the classical numerical method show that External Factors is the dominant criterion, especially during the financial crisis or the Covid pandemic, and that solutions should be sought in international standards along with using the control tools created by banks themselves.

Evaluation of the Economic Criteria for the Survival of Small Farms in Serbia

December 2020

Author: Vladimir Ristanović, Co-author: Aleksandra Tošović-Stevanović

Agriculture is an important economic sector in Serbia with the largest percentage of small and family farms. In order to improve this business and the survival of small farms in Serbia, the goal of the paper is to select the criteria for the survival of small farms in Serbia by applying the concept of analytical hierarchical processes (the AHP method). The research was conducted in Serbia on the sample of 550 small farms, comparing economic indicators based on the criteria that can contribute to achieving the goals of agricultural enterprises. Each indicator was evaluated and considered in relation to the set criteria, such as investments in farms, information available to farms, distribution channels of agricultural products, and the quality of agricultural products. The results of the survey showed that the best ranked indicator of the survival of small farms in Serbia is the level of education and knowledge of farmers, holders of farms.

Valutna klauzula - jednosmerna ili dvosmerna ulica - Zamka za manje razvijene ekonomije (Currency clause - one or two-way street - The Trap for Emergency Economies)

18. septembar 2018. godine

Autori: Dejan Miljković, Vladimir Ristanović

Sažetak

Kroz ovaj rad čitaoci će biti u prilici da se upoznaju sa kreditnom politikom banaka, i bankarskim alatima koje banke koriste u svakodnevnoj praksi. Analizom je obuhvaćen bankarski sektor u Srbiji za period od 2003. do 2015. godine. Na bazi raspoloživih podataka Narodne banke Srbije prikazane su performanse 27 banaka koje su kontinuirano poslovale u srpskoj ekonomiji, i neke od detrminanti njihove profitabilnosti. Takođe, analizirana je profitabilnost pojedinih banaka unutar, i van granica Srbije. Stoga, osnovu rada čini analiza profitabilnosti bankarskog sektora. Poseban akcent stavljen je na analizu uticaja indeksacije kredita u Srbiji, i primenu valutne klauzule u kreditnim poslovima, kao i efekte njene primene na obe strane, banku i stanovništvo. Analizirana su dva rešenja problema valutne (devizne) klauzule, jedno primenjeno u praksi, u Mađarskoj, i drugo, teorijsko razmatranje pravednosti i pravičnosti valutne (devizne) klauzule.

Ključne reči: bankarski sektor, indeksacija, valutna klauzula JEL Klasifikacija: E42, E43, E51, E52, E58

Preuzmite kompletan rad

Summary

This paper follows the profitability of banks in the Serbian market, the countries in the region and the market of Russia. The emphasis is put on the economic and legal similarities and differences in the mentioned markets. The banking sector in Serbia is observed during the period from 2003 to 2015 years. On the basis of available data of the National bank of Serbia (NBS), the performances of 27 banks that have continuously operated in the economy of Serbia are presented, as well as some of the determinants of their profitability. Also, the profitability of some banks inside and outside the borders of Serbia was analysed. So, the basis of this study is the analysis of the profitability of the banking sector. A special emphasis was put on the analysis and the usage of currency clause in credit operations in Serbia and the countries covered by this analysis, as well as the effects of its usage on both the bank and the population. Two solutions for the problem of the currency clause were analysed; one applied in practice in Hungary and the other, theoretical consideration of righteousness and equity of currency clause.

Keywords: Banking Sector, Indexation, Currency Clause JEL Classification: E42, E43, E51, E52, E58

Labava kamatna politika podstiče nestabilnost

17. januar 2018. godine

Autor: Vladimir Ristanović

Osam godina od izbijanja globalne finansijske krize, centralne banke širom sveta dovijaju se da podstaknu rast anemične privrede i podignu inflaciju, manevrisanje kamatnim stopama i (ili) doštampavanje novca. Od kolapsa američke banke „Braća Liman” u jesen 2008. godine, centralne banke širom sveta čak 669 puta manevrisale su kamatnim stopama, prebrojala je „Bank of Amerika Meril Linč”. U grčevitom nastojanju da ožive kreditiranje privrede i stanovništva, 57 centralnih banaka (od toga 10 u razvijenom delu sveta) lane je čak 110 puta obaralo kamatne stope, dok je trend u 2016. još brži: u prvom tromesečju ove godine bazne kamate izmenjene su 99 puta. Rezultati iznuđenih, a basnoslovnih stimulativnih mera su skromni, ocenio je krajem sedmice Mario Dragi, predsednik Evropske centralne banke – rekordera po količini para upumpanih na postkrizno evro-finansijsko tržište (preko bilion evra). „Neophodan nam je jak privredni rast”, naglasio je Dragi u intervjuu za „ARD Tagestemen”.

„Politika” o postkriznoj promeni kamatne politike centralnih banaka širom sveta razgovara s dr Vladimirom Ristanovićem, vanrednim profesorom međunarodnih finansija na Visokoj školi za poslovnu ekonomiju i finansije u Beogradu.

Anomalije tržišta Evrozone

13. oktobar 2017. godine

Autor: Vladimir Ristanović

Apstrakt

U ovom radu biće analizirani problemi na tržištu Evrozone. Cilj je da se sagleda gde se i koji su to uzroci višegodišnjih problema na tržištu roba, finansijskom tržištu i tržištu radne snage. Problemi funkcionisanja Evrozone prerastaju u hronične probleme za koje i najrazvijenije ekonomije teško iznalaze odgovarajuća rešenja. Kroz tekst će biti istaknuti fundamentalni problemi, a koji su se skriveno ispoljavali i pre finansijske krize. Posmatrane su države Evrozone (EA -19, izvor Eurostat), u periodu od 2000. godine do 2016. godine, i analiziran je autput gep kao pokazatelj odsustva potpune iskorišćenosti kapaciteta ekonomija Evrozone, kao posledice dugogodišnjeg odstupanja aktuelnog od potencijalnog autpu-ta. Gotovo izjednačavanje aktuelne i očekivane inflacije, još pre finansijske krize narušilo je finansijske tokove, ali i produbilo problem nezaposlenosti, usled pada potencijalnog autputa u pojedinim ekonomijama Evrozone. Regresionom analizom su ocenjene relacije između glavnih makroekonomskih varijabli u nestabilnim uslovima i potvrdile ranija istraživanja. Nepovoljne prilike na tržištima Evrozone – nizak privredni rast, visoke stope nezaposlenosti i niska inflacija, prema predviđanjima međunarodnih institucija, nastaviće se u istom trendu i u narednim godinama/decenijama.

Ključne reči: autput gep, tržišta Evrozone, optimalno valutno područje

Direction of Serbian Trade: Gravity Model Based on Pool Data

1. jun 2017. godine

Autori: Vladimir Ristanović, Siniša Barjaktarević

Apstrakt

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effects of bilateral trade between Serbia and EUcountries in the period 2001-2015 on the basis of a gravity model. So far in research papers the gravity modelhas been used for the evaluation of effects of trade among different countries. The gravity model, whichcombines the cross-section data and the time-series data, has been estimated to the panel data. Estimatedresults based on a sample of 28 countries reveal that the economic size of foreign countries, the market size oftrading partners (the number of inhabitants), and the geographical distance produce altogether huge effects onSerbia’s total trade and exports. Border and language factors have also been taken into account. The researchleaves room for further scientific analyses and provides guidance for trade policy creators in analyses fordirections of the Serbian trade. This research is based on complex econometric analyses and a recognisedmodel, and shows that there is considerable room for the growth of bilateral trade between Serbia and EU.

Keywords: international trade; panel model; Serbia; EU

Dinamika tržišta radne snage u Srbiji

7. decembar 2014. godine

Autori: Vladimir Ristanović, Siniša Barjaktarević

Apstrakt

U ovom radu analiziraćemo problem nezaposlenosti u Srbiji kroz dinamiku tržišta radne snage. Dugogodišnji problem nezaposlenosti prerastao je u strukturnu nezaposlenost, čiju prirodu teorijski koncepti nisu u mogućnosti da jasno objasne kroz osnovne makroekonomske varijable – BDP, inflaciju i nezaposlenost. Otuda, fokus naše analize biće sagledavanje strukture radne snage na tržištu radne snage tokom prve i druge decenije XXI veka. Primenićemo metodologiju Međunarodne organizacije tržišta rada (ILO), koristeći njene ključne indikatore (KILM indikatori) na tržištu radne snage u Srbiji, a kojima se analiziraju različite strukture nezaposlenosti‚ zaposlenosti po sektorima, produktivnost rada itd. Pokazaćemo poziciju privrede Srbije u svetu, prikazaćemo probleme nezaposlenosti i predložiti potencijalna rešenja.

Ključne reči: (ne)zaposlenost, KILM indikatori, institucije tržišta rada

Agonija nezaposlenosti u Evrozoni

22. jul 2014. godine

Autor: Vladimir Ristanović

Apstrakt

U ovom radu posvetićemo pažnju evoluciji problema nezaposlenosti u Evrozoni. Cilj nam je da sagledamo gde su koreni problema nezaposlenosti i da iznađemo razloge, sada već hroničnog problema nezaposlenosti. Pokazaćemo koji su osnovni činioci koji produžavaju agoniju nezaposlenosti i da li ima izgleda da u bliskoj budućnosti problem nezaposlenosti bude prošlost za Evrozonu. U analizi zemalja Evrozone pratićemo osnovne makroekonomske pokazatelje ravnoteže u jednoj privredi – BDP, inflaciju i nezaposlenost. Sagledaćemo da li je i monetarna strategija inflatornog targetiranja doprinela problemu nezaposlenosti, kroz smanjenje potencijalnog autputa, ali i potvrditi da u uslovima globalne krize postoje neka odstupanja od teorijskih koncepata osnovnih makroekonomskih relacija – Okunovog zakona i Filipsove krive. U borbi protiv problema nezaposlenosti na tržištu rada koristićemo konvencijalne politike – monetarnu i fiskalnu, ali i specifične politike – politiku dohotka i institucionalnu politiku. Konačno, pokazaćemo da je/bi jedino Nemačka, sa „malom“ žrtvom, mogla da spase realni sektor, kako perifernih mediteranskih zemalja, tako i cele Evrozone.

Ključne reči: makroekonomska ravnoteža, nezaposlenost, inflacija, recesija, Evrozona