Prema dugoročnim projekcijama OECD svetska ekonomija će beležiti pad BDP-a u narednih 5 decenija. U periodu 2010-2020. godina prognozira se prosečan desetogodišnji rast BDP-a od 3,6%.
Privredni rast (prosečan desetogodišnji) u prethodnoj deceniji, od 3,5%, bio je rezultat uglavnom rasta brzorastućih ekonomija (Kine, Indije, Brazila, Indonezije i drugih). Danas ove ekonomije usporavaju svoje ekonomske aktivnosti. Recimo, pet brzorastućih ekonomija (Brazil, Indija, Rusija, Turska i Argentina), a koje čine 12% svetske ekonomije, trenutno beleži pad privredne aktivnosti, slabljenje valute, a pojedine se suočavaju sa socijalnim turbulencija. Problem je veći zbog same činjenice da razvijene ekonomije prihoduju sa korporativnih tržišta ovih ekonomija. Tako, na primer, Švajcarska ostvaruje preko 30% prihoda, Velika Britanija gotovo četvrtinu ukupnih prihoda, Evropska unija 18%, dok najmanje prihoduje Amerika sa 15%. To znači da će sa usporavanjem privredne aktivnosti brzorastućih zemalja doći do usporavanja i razvijenih ekonomija, a time i cele svetske ekonomije.
Sa druge strane, zapaženi rast privrede u Nigeriji, pa i Angoli, nije čak ni srednjeročno zagarantovan. Rast Nigerije zasnovan je na aktivnostima koje ranije nisu toliko bile zastupljene u kreiranju BDP-a (prodaja nafte, inicijalno ulaganje telekomunikacije i bankarski sektor). Pored visokih stopa rasta u poslednjih desetak godina stepen siromaštva nije smanjen, što govori da postoji rast ali ne i razvoj globalne ekonomije. Takođe, priliv inostranog kapitala (holivudski kapital) je privremenog karaktera i kada nađe bolje utočište napustiće nigerijsko tržište. Tada će se Nigerija suočiti sa gubitkom deviznih rezervi, slabljenjnem nacionalne valute, rastom kamatnih stopa, padom privredne aktivnosti i posledično rastom nezaposlenosti.
U narednim decenijama, rast globalne ekonomije imaće opadajući trend. Pri tome, prema projekcijama, više će se smanjivati doprinos država OECD-a nego što će se smanjivati doprinos država van OECD-a (-51% i -26%, respektivno). Drugim rečima, u narednim decenijama doprinos globalnom rastu država van OECD-a biće kontinuriano uvećavan u odnosu na doprinos država OECD-a, i to sa 2.05 puta u deceniji 2010-2020 na 3.44 puta u deceniji 2050-2060.
Izvor podataka: OECD
According to long-term OECD projections, the world economy will record a decline in GDP in the next 5 decades. In the period 2010-2020. year, the average ten-year GDP growth of 3.6% is forecast.
Economic growth (average ten years) in the previous decade, of 3.5%, was the result mainly of the growth of fast-growing economies (China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and others). Today, these economies are slowing down their economic activities. For example, five fast-growing economies (Brazil, India, Russia, Turkey and Argentina), which make up 12% of the world economy, are currently experiencing declining economic activity, weakening currency, and some are facing social turbulence. The problem is bigger due to the fact that developed economies come from the corporate markets of these economies. Thus, for example, Switzerland generates over 30% of revenues, Great Britain almost a quarter of total revenues, the European Union 18%, while the least revenue is America with 15%. This means that with the slowdown in the economic activity of fast-growing countries, there will be a slowdown in developed economies, and thus the entire world economy.
On the other hand, the observed growth of the economy in Nigeria, and even Angola, is not even guaranteed in the medium term. Nigeria’s growth is based on activities that were previously less represented in GDP creation (oil sales, telecommunications initial investment and the banking sector). In addition to high growth rates in the last ten years, the poverty rate has not decreased, which means that there is growth but not the development of the global economy. Also, the inflow of foreign capital (Hollywood capital) is temporary and when it finds a better refuge, it will leave the Nigerian market. Then Nigeria will face the loss of foreign exchange reserves, the weakening of the national currency, rising interest rates, falling economic activity and consequently rising unemployment.
In the coming decades, the growth of the global economy will have a declining trend. At the same time, according to projections, the contribution of OECD countries will decrease more than the contribution of non-OECD countries will decrease (-51% and -26%, respectively). In other words, in the coming decades, the contribution to the global growth of non-OECD countries will be continuously increased in relation to the contribution of OECD countries, from 2.05 times in the decade 2010-2020 to 3.44 times in the decade 2050-2060.
Source data: OECD