Raste cena ugljenika na EU tržištu za trgovanjem emisijom, tržište je nestabilno, a alat Evropske Komisije neefikasan.
Cena ugljenika je dostigla novi maksimum u drugom kvartalu 2021. godine. Cene dozvola (EUA) na sekundarnom spot tržištu su porasle u posmatranom periodu preko 100%. Posmatrano od aprila 2013. godine, kada je beležena najniža cena od 2.75 evra do jula 2021. godine to je porast od oko 2000%.
Cene dozvola odražavaju trenutne osnovne faktore na EU ETS, kao i buduća očekivanja usled čestih izmena strategija zaštite. Na cene dozvola utiču i hedž fondovi i špekulanti koji kupovinom dozvola, radi sticanja profita.
Postoje značajni rizici manipulacije i u tom pogledu nužno je uvesti viši stešen zaštite tržišta, kroz primenu Uredbe o zloupotrebi tržiša i Uredbe o aukciji. Velike turbulencije na tržištu ograničavaju zaštitničku moć stabilizacionih alata Evropske komisije. Očigledno je da Evropska komisija ima ključnu ulogu i daje odlučujući glas po pitanju stabilizacije tržišta dozvola. Visoka fluktuacija cena dozvola može imati negativan uticaj na EU ETS.
Očekivanja su da će cena nastaviti da raste do kraja 2021. godine (na oko 100 eura po metričkoj toni).
Ideja uvođenja mehanizma prilagođavanja granice ugljenika može pojačati tenzije između članica EU i njihovih trgovinskih partnera.
The price of carbon on the EU the Emissions Trading System is rising, the market is unstable, and the tool of the European Commission is inefficient.
The price of carbon reached a new maximum in the second quarter of 2021. EU Allowance prices (EUA) on the secondary spot market increased over 100% in the observed period. Observed from April 2013, when the lowest price of 2.75 euros was recorded until July 2021, that is an increase of about 2000%.
EU Allowance prices reflect current underlying factors on the EU ETS, as well as future expectations due to frequent changes in protection strategies. The prices of licenses are also influenced by hedge funds and speculators, who buy licenses in order to make a profit.
There are significant risks of manipulation and in this regard it is necessary to introduce a higher level of market protection, through the application of the Market Abuse Regulation and Auction Regulation provisions. High turbulence in the market limits the protective power of the stabilization tools of the European Commission. It is obvious that the European Commission has a key role and gives a decisive voice on the issue of stabilization of the allowance market. High fluctuations in allowance prices can have a negative impact on the EU ETS.
It is expected that the price will continue to rise until the end of 2021 (to around 100 euros per metric ton).
The idea of introducing a carbon border adjustment mechanism could increase tensions between EU members and their trading partners.