Danas govorimo o brzo-rastućoj ekonomiji zasnovanoj na vrednostima Ataturkove moderne Turske (kemalizmu). Njihova očekivanja dosežu visoke granice, da se do 2023. godine i stogodišnjice Ataturkove moderne države, nađu među 15 ekonomski najjačih država sveta.
Mnogoljudna Turska (sa preko 80 miliona stanovnika) pripada grupaciji OECD razvijenih i brzorastućih ekonomija (iznad proseka OECD, ali i proseka EU).
Struktura turske privrede u poslednjih 50 godina značajno je promenjena. Učešće usluga je višestruko nadmašilo sektore poljoprivrede i industrije. Poljoprivreda je dominirala 60-ih godina prošloga veka sa novo-dodatom vrednosti od preko 50%, dok je danas jednocifrena (manje od 9%). Sa druge strane, sektor usluga koji je imao svega ¼ učešća danas dostiže skoro 2/3 BDP. Slična je struktura zaposlenosti po pojedinim sektorima privrede.
Porast učešća srednje- i visoko-tehnološki intenzivnih proizvoda garantuje Turskoj rast ekonomije u srednjem i dugom roku. Približno 30% turske proizvodnje i 37% njenog globalnog izvoza čine proizvodi srednje i visoke tehnologije. Danas je struktura turske privrede više zasnovana na sektoru usluga (tercijarne delatnosti – finansije, osiguranje, turizam) i savremenim tehnologijama (digitalizacija, IT, automatika, elektronika). Očekuju se ulaganja 2–3 milijarde dolara godišnje kako bi se integrisala industrijska rešenja u proizvodni proces. Napredak digitalizacije iziskuje potrebna dodatna ulaganja za unapređenje tehnološke infrastrukture u zemlji, kao što su usluge fiksne i mobilne širokopojasne mreže, kao i optička vlakna. Takve promene zahtevaju transformisanje obrazovnog sistema, i prioritet su veština nauke, tehnologije, inženjerstva i matematike (STEM). Procenjuju se uštede ovakve transformacije i do 10 milijardi dolara godišnje u tekućim troškovima proizvodnje, uz porast produktivnosti od 4-7%, uzimajući u obzir ukupne troškove proizvodnje.
Deceniju i po Turska dominira kao ekonomija sa najvećim prilivom ali i odlivom stranih direktnih investicija (neto SDI čine oko 3,5% BDP). U Evropi Turska je 7 ekonomija po prilivu investicija (2013-2017. priliv od 193 milijarde dolara), najviše u oblasti finansija (oko 1/3), prerađivačke industrije (1/4), energetici (12%), IT (8%), saobraćaju (6%), trgovini (4%), poreklom iz Velike Britanije (oko 12%), Holandije (oko 12%), Italije (10%), Nemačke (oko 6%), Rusije (oko 6%). Čak oko 40% investicija koje potiču sa azijskog kontinenta završe u Turskoj. I obratno, oko 40% investicija Turske završi u državama na azijskom kontinentu – u Rusiji, oko 30%, a gotovo polovina samo u okruženje (države oko Crnog mora) u manjem obimu i centralnoj i istočnoj Evropi. U poslednjih 10-ak godina odliv stranih direktnih investicija Turske je povećan čak 15 puta. Najvećim delom u prerađivačku industriju, saobraćaj, hranu, trgovinu na malo. Samo u 2016. godini geenfield investicije su dostigle gotovo 3 milijarde dolara, dok su M&A gotovo 4 milijarde dolara. Odlive Turska rangira prema partnerima kroz tri grupe – prvu čine SAD, Nemačka, Velika Britanija, Holandija i Švedska; drugu čine – Rusija, Češka, Kina, Bugarska i Rumunija; treću čine – Iran, Indonezija, Etiopija, Egipat, Azerbejdžan i balkanske države.
Trenutno, turska ekonomija ekonomija je u recesiji. Tri poslednja kvartala pokazuju negativne stope rasta (Q4 2018 od -2%; Q1 2018 od -2,4%; Q2 2019 od -1,5%). Ovaj period, kao i 2018. godinu odlikuje gubitak vrednosti lire, gubitak poverenja u finansijski sistem (smena guvernera početkom 2019. godine), politički pritisci spolja, pad investicija, gubitak konkurentnosti, smanjenje agregatne tražnje. I pored toga, privreda ne stoji iako posustaje. Rast industrijske proizvodnje i rast investicija, veće intervencije iz deviznih rezervi (u 2019. godini utrošeno preko 10 milijardi deviznih rezervi, od ukupnih oko 110 milijardi dolara), rast neto izvoza, visoki prilivi novca od turizma (procene za 2019. godinu su 50 miliona turista, i prihod od oko 35 milijardi dolara), visok neto izvoz, uspešno su sprečili veći kolaps u 2019. godini. Brzo prilagođavanje ekonomije dalo je rezultate iznad očekivanih.
Izvor: OECDStat
Today we are talking about a fast-growing economy based on the values of Ataturk’s modern Turkey (Kemalism). Their expectations reach high limits, to be among the 15 economically strongest countries in the world by 2023 and the centenary of Ataturk’s modern state.
Multi-population Turkey (with over 80 million inhabitants) belongs to the OECD group of developed and fast-growing economies (above the OECD average but also the EU average).
The structure of the Turkish economy has changed significantly over the last 50 years. Services participation has far outstripped the agriculture and industry sectors. Agriculture dominated the 1960s with a value added of over 50%, while today it is single-digit (less than 9%). On the other hand, the services sector, which accounted for only ¼ of today, reaches almost 2/3 of GDP. The structure of employment by sector of economy is similar.
The increase in the share of medium- and high-tech intensive products guarantees Turkey economic growth in the medium and long term. About 30% of Turkey’s production and 37% of its global exports are from medium- and high-tech products. Today, the structure of the Turkish economy is more based on the services sector (tertiary activities – finance, insurance, tourism) and modern technologies (digitalization, IT, automation, electronics). Investments of $ 2-3 billion per year are expected to integrate industrial solutions into the manufacturing process. The advancement of digitalization requires the necessary additional investment to upgrade the country’s technological infrastructure, such as fixed and mobile broadband services, as well as fiber optics. Such changes require the transformation of the education system, and science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) skills are a priority. Savings of this transformation are estimated to be up to $ 10 billion a year in current production costs, with productivity gains of 4-7%, taking into account total production costs.
For a decade and a half, Turkey has been dominated by the economy with the highest inflow and outflow of foreign direct investment (net FDI accounts for about 3.5% of GDP). In Europe, Turkey is 7 economies in terms of investment inflows (2013-2017 inflows of $ 193 billion), most in finance (about 1/3), manufacturing (1/4), energy (12%), IT (8%) ), transport (6%), trade (4%), originating in the United Kingdom (about 12%), the Netherlands (about 12%), Italy (10%), Germany (about 6%), Russia (about 6%) . As many as 40% of investments originating in the Asian continent end up in Turkey. Conversely, about 40% of Turkey’s investments end up in countries on the Asian continent – in Russia, about 30%, and almost half only in smaller countries (Central and Eastern European countries) in Central and Eastern Europe. Turkey’s foreign direct investment outflow has increased 15 times in the last 10 years. Mostly to manufacturing, transport, food, retail. In 2016 alone, geenfield investments reached nearly $ 3 billion, while M&A reached nearly $ 4 billion. Outflows Turkey ranks partners by three groups – the first being the USA, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Sweden; the second is Russia, the Czech Republic, China, Bulgaria and Romania; the third is Iran, Indonesia, Ethiopia, Egypt, Azerbaijan and the Balkan countries.
Currently, the Turkish economy is in recession. The last three quarters show negative growth rates (Q4 2018 of -2%; Q1 2018 of -2.4%; Q2 2019 of -1.5%). This period, like 2018, is characterized by a loss in the value of the lira, a loss of confidence in the financial system (the removal of the governor in early 2019), political pressures from the outside, a fall in investment, a loss of competitiveness, a decrease in aggregate demand. Even so, the economy does not stand still, although it is declining. Growth in industrial production and investment growth, greater intervention from foreign exchange reserves (over 10 billion foreign exchange reserves spent in 2019 out of a total of about $ 110 billion), growth in net exports, high inflows of tourism money (estimates for 2019 are 50 million tourists, and revenue of about $ 35 billion), high net exports, successfully prevented a major collapse in 2019. The rapid adjustment of the economy yielded results above expectations.
Source: OECDStat