Kumulativni rast razvijenih ekonomija je nedovoljan za brži oporavak od svetske ekonomske krize koja traje već punih 6 i po godina. U 2014. godini predkrizni nivo realnog BDP-a dostigli su SAD, VB i Japan, dok je taj cilj postaje „hronično“ nedostižan za Evrozonu.
Razvijeni svet pored svojih razvojnih kapaciteta teško dolazi do oporavka. U Q2-2014. godine jedino su SAD i Velika Britanija dostigle predkrizne vrednosti (Q1-2008=100) stopa privrednog rasta (realni BDP). I Japan ga je dostigao tokom Q1-2014. godine, ali je već u narednom kvartalu zabeležio novi pad usled pada na strani tražnje – pad privatne potrošnje za 5% i međugodišnji pad realnih zarada za 3,2% (porast potrošnje tokom Q1 i smanjenje tokom Q2, zbog najavljenog rasta poreza od 3 procentna poena u aprilu mesecu)‚ ali i usporen izvoz i pored slabljenja jena u odnosu na dolar (centralna banka upumpavala dolare kojim je finansiran budžetski deficit). U najnepovoljnijoj poziciji je Evrozona, čiji su indeksi (kumulativnog) privrednog rasta ispod predkriznih vrednosti tokom celog posmatranog perioda, i gotovo isti kao 2011. godine.
Međutim, i pored kumulativno najvećeg privrednog rasta u SAD od 7,3% u periodu Q1 2008 – Q2 2014. godina ostale makroekonomske varijable nisu dostigle svoje predkrizne vrednosti. Pravilo je da tokom ekspanzije daleko brže raste autput nego što se povećava zaposlenost (smanjuje nezaposlenost) ili rastu zarade. Iskustva Velike Depresije potvrđuju ovo pravilo – privreda SAD je pokazivala znake oporavka u periodu 1933-37. godina (BNP rastao po stopi od preko 8%), dok je trebalo deset godina (dakle tek 1939) da (ne)zaposlenost dostigne predkrizne vrednosti. Komponente BDP-a su u drugoj polovini 1930-ih godina uspele da dostignu predkrizni nivo (jedino je budžetska potrošnja značajno povećana).
Izgledi su da će sa ovom poslednjom ekonomskom krizom vraćanje na predkrizni nivo makroekonomskih veličina sačekati celu deceniju, tj. 2018. godinu (ukoliko se uskoro okončaju sukobi u Ukraijini i reše pitanja razmene sa Rusijom). Ekonomski rast koji trenutno beleže razvijene zemlje nije dovoljan da odjednom pokrene sve makroekonomske varijable i zahteva vreme da se one dostignu zadovoljavajući nivo. Aktuelna ekonomsko-politička i druga dešavanja koja se nepovoljno odražavaju na međunarodnu trgovinu samo produbljuju neizvesnost oko konačnog oporavka od krize i vraćanja na ranije koloseke.
Napomena: kalkulacije autora na bazi kvartalnih podataka OECD-a (http://stats.oecd.org/ 22.08.2014. 20:06)
The cumulative growth of developed economies has been insufficient to ensure a faster recovery from the global economic crisis, which has now lasted for a full six and a half years. By 2014, the pre-crisis level of real GDP had been reached by the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan, while this goal has become “chronically” unattainable for the Eurozone.
Despite their development capacities, advanced economies are struggling to achieve recovery. In Q2 2014, only the United States and the United Kingdom reached their pre-crisis levels of economic growth (real GDP, with Q1 2008 = 100). Japan reached this level in Q1 2014, but already in the following quarter recorded a renewed decline due to a contraction on the demand side – private consumption fell by 5% and real wages declined year-on-year by 3.2% (consumption increased in Q1 and decreased in Q2 due to the announced tax increase of 3 percentage points in April). This was accompanied by slower export growth, despite the depreciation of the yen against the US dollar (as the central bank injected dollars to finance the budget deficit). The most unfavorable position is that of the Eurozone, whose indices of cumulative economic growth remained below pre-crisis levels throughout the entire observed period and were almost identical to those recorded in 2011.
However, despite the highest cumulative economic growth in the United States of 7.3% over the period Q1 2008–Q2 2014, other macroeconomic variables have not returned to their pre-crisis levels. As a rule, during an expansion, output grows much faster than employment increases (or unemployment declines) or wages rise. The experience of the Great Depression confirms this pattern – the US economy showed signs of recovery during the period 1933–1937 (GDP growing at a rate of over 8%), while it took ten years (until 1939) for employment to return to its pre-crisis level. The components of GDP in the second half of the 1930s succeeded in reaching pre-crisis levels, with the exception of government spending, which increased significantly.
It appears that, following the most recent economic crisis, the return to pre-crisis levels of macroeconomic indicators will require an entire decade, i.e. until 2018 (assuming that the conflicts in Ukraine are resolved soon and trade relations with Russia are normalized). The economic growth currently recorded in developed countries is not sufficient to simultaneously activate all macroeconomic variables and requires time for these variables to reach satisfactory levels. Ongoing economic, political, and other developments that adversely affect international trade only deepen uncertainty regarding the final recovery from the crisis and a return to previous growth paths.
Note: Author’s calculations based on quarterly OECD data (http://stats.oecd.org/
, 22 August 2014, 20:06).