Prema dugoročnim projekcijama OECD svetska ekonomija će beležiti pad BDP-a u narednih 5 decenija. U periodu 2010-2020. godina prognozira se prosečan desetogodišnji rast BDP-a od 3,6%.
Privredni rast (prosečan desetogodišnji) u prethodnoj deceniji, od 3,5%, bio je rezultat uglavnom rasta brzorastućih ekonomija (Kine, Indije, Brazila, Indonezije i drugih). Danas ove ekonomije usporavaju svoje ekonomske aktivnosti. Recimo, pet brzorastućih ekonomija (Brazil, Indija, Rusija, Turska i Argentina), a koje čine 12% svetske ekonomije, trenutno beleži pad privredne aktivnosti, slabljenje valute, a pojedine se suočavaju sa socijalnim turbulencija. Problem je veći zbog same činjenice da razvijene ekonomije prihoduju sa korporativnih tržišta ovih ekonomija. Tako, na primer, Švajcarska ostvaruje preko 30% prihoda, Velika Britanija gotovo četvrtinu ukupnih prihoda, Evropska unija 18%, dok najmanje prihoduje Amerika sa 15%. To znači da će sa usporavanjem privredne aktivnosti brzorastućih zemalja doći do usporavanja i razvijenih ekonomija, a time i cele svetske ekonomije.
Sa druge strane, trenutni zapaženi rast privrede u Nigeriji, pa i Angoli, nije čak ni srednjeročno zagarantovan. Rast Nigerije zasnovan je na aktivnostima koje ranije nisu toliko bile zastupljene u stvaranju BDP-a (prodaja nafte, telekomunikacije i bankarski sektor). Pored visokih stopa rasta u poslenjdih desetak godina stepen siromaštva nije smanjen, što govori da postoji rast ali ne i razvoj ekonomije. Takođe, priliv inostranog kapitala (holivduski kapital) je privremenog karaktera i kada nađe bolje utočište napustiće nigerijsko tržište. Tada će se Nigerija suočiti sa gubitkom deviznih rezervi, slabljenjnem nacionalne valute, rastom kamatnih stopa, padom privredne aktivnosti i posledično rastom nezaposlenosti.
Izvor: OECD
According to long-term OECD projections, the global economy is expected to record a decline in GDP growth over the next five decades. In the period 2010-2020, the projected average ten-year GDP growth rate is 3.6%.
The average ten-year economic growth of 3.5% in the previous decade was largely driven by fast-growing economies (China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, and others). Today, these economies are slowing their economic activity. For example, five fast-growing economies (Brazil, India, Russia, Turkey, and Argentina), which together account for about 12% of the global economy, are currently experiencing declining economic activity, currency depreciation, and in some cases social turbulence. The problem is compounded by the fact that developed economies generate significant corporate revenues from these markets. For instance, Switzerland earns over 30% of its revenues there, the United Kingdom nearly a quarter of its total revenues, the European Union about 18%, while the United States earns the least at around 15%. This implies that a slowdown in fast-growing economies will also lead to slower growth in developed economies and, consequently, the global economy as a whole.
On the other hand, the currently observed economic growth in Nigeria – and to some extent Angola – is not guaranteed even in the medium term. Nigeria’s growth has been driven by sectors that previously played a smaller role in GDP creation (oil sales, telecommunications, and banking). Despite high growth rates over the past decade, poverty levels have not declined, indicating growth without genuine economic development. Moreover, inflows of foreign capital (“Hollywood capital”) are temporary in nature and will leave the Nigerian market when more attractive opportunities arise elsewhere. At that point, Nigeria may face a loss of foreign exchange reserves, depreciation of the national currency, rising interest rates, declining economic activity, and consequently higher unemployment.
Source: OECD