Usporavanje najsnažnije brzorastuće ekonomije, jer raste po najnižim stopama od 1990. godine. U Q2 2104. godine kineska ekonomija beleži međugodišnji rast od 7,5%, što je nivo predviđanja za 2014. godinu ali i bolji rezultat nego u Q1 2014. godini (7,4%). Rast ekonomije podstican je većom budžetskom potrošnjom za 26,1% (ulaganja u železnicu, energetiku, nekretnine i rudarstvo) i smanjenjem poreza, a što je praćeno snižavanjem obaveznih rezervi banaka u pojedinim provincijama koje odobravaju pozajmice zaduženim poloprivrednicima i malim firmama. Labava monetarna politika ima za cilj da smanji rizike (visoke robne zalihe, uključujući i uvozno gvožđe) sa kojima se suočava privreda, kako bi se dostigao ciljani nivo rasta od 7,5%. Lokalne vlasti umanjuju kreditna ograničenja za kupovinu kuća kako bi održali vrednost nekretnina. Prodaja nekretnina je porasla za 33% u junu u odnosu na maj, ali je posmatrano za prvo polugodište 2014. godine ostvaren pad od 9,2%. Ponuda novca je prevazišla prognozirani nivo već u junu mesecu. Vlada je smanjila vrednost junana za 2,5% (u odnosu na dolar) i na najnižem je nivou od početka godine.
Postoje očekivanja da će rast globalne tražnje i ekspanzivna politika uticati na oporavak u drugoj polovini godine, kao i na rast potrošnje nafte.
Investicije u fiksni kapital ostvarile su međugodišnji rast od 17,3% (predviđanje za 2014. 17,2%). Industrijska proizvodnja raste za 9,2% u junu mesecu, u odnosu na jun 2013. godine, što je najviše u tekućoj godini (8,8% u maju), dok trgovina na malo beleži međugodišnji rast u Q2 od 12,4% (predviđanje za 2014. 12,5%).
Kada se posmatraju desezonirani podaci i međugodišnji rast od 2% (prosek 1,8%), ima nagoveštaja da kineska ekonomija u 2014. godini može rasti po stopi od 8,2%. Najveća pretnja bržem rastu kineske privrede (ograničenje rastu) nalazi se u većem učešću tercijarnog sektora u BDP-u (u Q1 7,6% BDP-a, a u Q2 8% BDP-a).
The world’s strongest fast-growing economy has been slowing, recording its lowest growth rates since 1990. In Q2 2014, the Chinese economy posted year-on-year growth of 7.5%, which matches the forecast for 2014 and represents a slight improvement compared with Q1 2014 (7.4%). Economic growth was supported by a 26.1% increase in government spending (investments in railways, energy, real estate, and mining) and by tax cuts, accompanied by reductions in banks’ required reserve ratios in certain provinces that extend loans to indebted farmers and small firms. Loose monetary policy aims to reduce risks (high commodity inventories, including imported iron ore) faced by the economy in order to achieve the targeted growth rate of 7.5%. Local authorities have eased credit restrictions on home purchases to maintain real estate values. Property sales rose by 33% in June compared with May, although for the first half of 2014 a decline of 9.2% was recorded. Money supply exceeded the projected level as early as June. The government depreciated the yuan by 2.5% against the US dollar, bringing it to its lowest level since the beginning of the year.
There are expectations that stronger global demand and expansionary policies will support a recovery in the second half of the year, as well as increased oil consumption.
Fixed asset investment recorded year-on-year growth of 17.3% (the 2014 forecast is 17.2%). Industrial production grew by 9.2% in June compared with June 2013, the highest rate recorded this year (8.8% in May), while retail trade posted year-on-year growth of 12.4% in Q2 (the 2014 forecast is 12.5%).
Based on seasonally adjusted data and quarter-on-quarter growth of 2% (with an average of 1.8%), there are indications that the Chinese economy could grow at a rate of 8.2% in 2014. The main constraint on faster growth of the Chinese economy lies in the increasing share of the tertiary sector in GDP (7.6% of GDP in Q1 and 8% of GDP in Q2).